Market Overview for Nillion/Tether (NILUSDT) - 2025-10-03

• Nillion/Tether (NILUSDT) fell to a 24-hour low of $0.3271 before consolidating near $0.3290.
• A bearish divergence in RSI suggests weakening momentum amid declining prices.
• Volatility expanded post-overnight lows, with volume surging to 332,789.5 as support levels were tested.
• Key support at $0.3300 and resistance near $0.3350 defined the intraday range.
• Bollinger Bands showed price hovering near the lower band, signaling bearish bias.

Nillion/Tether (NILUSDT) opened at $0.3338 on 2025-10-02 at 16:00 ET and closed at $0.3294 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET, with a 24-hour high of $0.3466 and a low of $0.3271. Total volume traded was 3,327,895, while notional turnover reached $1,090,753. Price tested key support near $0.3300, forming several small-bodied bearish candles and a potential bearish engulfing pattern in the early hours.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart revealed a bearish bias over the 24-hour period, with price action forming a descending channel pattern as support at $0.3300 was tested and briefly held. A notable bearish engulfing pattern appeared around 00:45 ET on 2025-10-03, following an earlier bearish harami. A doji formed at $0.3350 during the morning hours, indicating indecision at a key psychological level. Resistance remains near $0.3350, which has acted as a ceiling for multiple attempts at a rebound.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price has remained below both the 20-period and 50-period SMAs for most of the session, reinforcing the bearish momentum. The 50-period SMA has been a key dynamic support that has been pierced on multiple occasions. Looking at the daily chart, the price is above the 200-period SMA but below the 50 and 100-period SMAs, signaling a mixed medium-term outlook.

MACD & RSI

The RSI has remained in oversold territory for much of the session, dipping to 27.2 at the 24-hour low. This may suggest that further downside is limited, though a bearish divergence between price and RSI suggests weak follow-through in buying. The MACD line has remained below the signal line, with a bearish crossover confirmed at the start of the 24-hour window. Both indicators signal that momentum is on the bearish side, with limited likelihood of a short-term reversal unless there is a breakout above the 50-period SMA.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly after the 24-hour low at $0.3271, pushing the bands wider. Price remained near the lower Bollinger Band for much of the session, indicating bearish dominance. A potential bounce from the lower band is being watched closely, but a break above the 20-period SMA would be required to see a meaningful reversal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 332,789.5 during the 00:00 ET candle, corresponding to the 24-hour low. Notional turnover also peaked at $112,883 during this period, indicating aggressive liquidation or bearish positioning. Volume has since declined to average levels, but price has failed to show confirmation of a short-term bottom. A divergence between price and volume could indicate fading bearishness if a bounce occurs.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent swing from $0.3466 to $0.3271, key retracement levels include 38.2% at $0.3366 and 61.8% at $0.3325. Price has tested and bounced off the 61.8% level multiple times, indicating strong support. A break below $0.3300 could target the next Fibonacci level at $0.3267, signaling deeper bearish pressure.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy suggests a bearish breakout strategy using the 50-period and 20-period SMAs as dynamic levels, with RSI divergence as a confirmation tool. The strategy would have entered a short position on a breakdown below the 50-period SMA and exited on a close above the 20-period SMA or a bullish RSI crossover. Given the current price action, this approach could be considered for short-term bearish bias, though traders should remain cautious of potential volatility spikes and unexpected bullish catalysts.