Market Overview for Nillion/Tether (NILUSDT) – 2025-10-03

• Nillion/Tether (NILUSDT) traded in a 24h range of $0.3271–$0.3466, closing $0.3294, down -4.47% from open.
• Price action shows bearish exhaustion with a key support tested at $0.3271–$0.3285 and resistance capped at $0.3350–$0.3400.
• Volume surged during early bullish attempts but faded significantly in the final 8 hours, signaling waning momentum.
• RSI reached oversold territory (<30)**, suggesting possible **short-term reversal** but limited confirmation from price. • Bollinger Bands show **tightening volatility** ahead of the close, with price **near the lower band** at the final close.

Nillion/Tether (NILUSDT) opened at **$0.3375** on 2025-10-02 at 12:00 ET and closed at **$0.3294** by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-03, after reaching a high of **$0.3466** and a low of **$0.3271** over the 24-hour period. Total volume traded was **3,364,788.4**, and notional turnover was **$1,133,942.80**. The pair remained in a bearish consolidation pattern, with key support levels tested and bearish momentum intensifying in the final hours.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart revealed a
bearish continuation pattern, with multiple gravestone doji and hanging man formations appearing in the $0.3320–$0.3360 range. A strong bearish engulfing pattern emerged from $0.3405 to $0.3345 during the 2025-10-02 17:30 to 17:45 ET session, confirming a shift in sentiment. The price has since been trading below a key ascending resistance-turned-support line drawn from $0.3400 to $0.3285, suggesting continued bearish pressure. A critical support zone has formed near $0.3271–$0.3285**, where the price has bounced twice over the past 12 hours.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price has remained below both the 20-period and 50-period MA, with the 20 MA falling faster than the 50 MA, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50 MA sits at $0.3340, while the 200 MA is around $0.3380, indicating a bearish divergence from key moving averages. Price has been trading below both the 100 MA and 200 MA for the past two days, suggesting a potential test of the $0.3250–$0.3275 zone in the near term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line mid-session on 2025-10-02, and the histogram has remained negative since. RSI has dipped into oversold territory (<30)** near the session close, though price remains under pressure without a strong bounce. Divergence is minimal, but the **negative momentum** in the MACD and the **oversold RSI** could signal a potential short-term bounce into **$0.3300–$0.3310**, though bearish continuation is more likely without strong volume confirmation.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have shown a
narrowing contraction in the final 8 hours, with the lower band sitting at $0.3275 and the upper band at $0.3320. Price has closed near the lower band multiple times, including the final candle, suggesting high volatility is due, either bullish or bearish. A breakout above the upper band could trigger a short-term rally into $0.3350**, but confirmation is needed.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged in early bullish attempts, particularly during the 2025-10-02 17:30–19:00 ET window, where turnover spiked to $450,000. However, volume has since tapered off, with the final 8 hours showing diminishing participation. Notional turnover was $1,133,942.80, with $380,000 of that concentrated between $0.3300–$0.3400. Price and volume appear to be aligning in bearish fashion, with low volume at recent lows suggesting distribution or reduced interest.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the $0.3271–$0.3466 swing, the 38.2% level at $0.3366 has acted as resistance, while the 61.8% level at $0.3303 has provided a temporary floor. The current price is just above the 61.8% level, which could serve as a key support or trigger a bounce if volume increases. A breakdown below $0.3303 would likely take the price toward $0.3250–$0.3275 on the next leg down.

Backtest Hypothesis

A viable short-term backtesting strategy may involve entering a long position on a close above the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $0.3303, with a stop loss placed below $0.3290 to protect against further downside. A take-profit target could be set at $0.3340, aligning with the 50-period MA and Bollinger Upper Band. This setup would capitalize on the oversold RSI, narrowing Bollinger Bands, and accumulation near key support. However, given the declining volume, this should be used with caution and paired with strict risk management.