Market Overview for Nillion/Tether (NILUSDT) – 2025-09-17 12:00 ET

• Nillion/Tether (NILUSDT) closed 0.3133 on 2025-09-17 after opening at 0.3165, down -1.00%.
• Price tested key support at 0.3131–0.3135, with a bearish engulfing pattern at the 09:00–09:15 ET session.
• RSI signaled oversold conditions briefly near 30, but lack of follow-through suggests bearish momentum remains.
• Volatility expanded during the early session before contracting, with volume peaking near 0.318–0.320 level.
• Turnover surged during the 02:00–04:00 ET window, reflecting high activity during the rally phase.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-17, Nillion/Tether (NILUSDT) traded at 0.3133, down from an open of 0.3165 at 12:00 ET-1. The 24-hour range was 0.3131 to 0.3250, with a 24-hour volume of 1,109,235.4, and a total turnover of $347,942.50.

Structure & Formations

The price action showed bearish dominance following a strong rally into 0.3250. A key bearish engulfing pattern occurred at 09:00–09:15 ET after a minor rebound. The 0.3131–0.3135 zone has emerged as strong support, with a potential test of 0.3116–0.3118 as the next level to watch. On the resistance side, the 0.3165–0.3180 range continues to act as a psychological and technical ceiling.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below both the 20 EMA (~0.3144) and 50 EMA (~0.3156), reinforcing short-term bearish momentum. The daily chart remains below 50 SMA (~0.3180) and 200 SMA (~0.3200), indicating a bearish bias over the medium term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into negative territory, with a bearish divergence forming after the rally. RSI hit 30 at 09:00–09:15 ET, suggesting oversold conditions, but the price failed to bounce, indicating weak buying interest. The oscillator remains in neutral to bearish territory, below 50.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded early in the session, with price reaching the upper band at 0.3237 before consolidating into the lower band range. The most recent close of 0.3133 sits near the lower Bollinger band (lower ~0.3130), indicating potential for a bounce or a continuation lower if volume remains muted.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 02:00–04:00 ET window as price tested 0.324–0.3250, but dropped significantly after 06:00 ET. Notional turnover peaked at $22,000 during the 02:45–03:00 ET session, followed by a gradual decline. The divergence between price action and volume in the past 6 hours suggests fading momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the recent high of 0.3250 and low of 0.3131 indicate key Fibonacci levels: 38.2% at 0.3200, 61.8% at 0.3166. Price is currently near 0.3131, the 100% retracement level, with potential for a retest of 0.3166 if a short-term bounce forms.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish engulfing pattern and weak RSI follow-through, a potential short setup could have been triggered at 0.3150 with a stop above 0.3175 and target at 0.3115. A backtest using a 15-minute EMA crossover (20 vs 50) alongside RSI divergence could help refine entries and exits. A trailing stop or partial profit-taking near 0.3140 could optimize risk-reward, especially as price consolidates near key support.