Market Overview: NEXOUSDT on 2025-10-05

• Price formed a key 1.255 support level during the 24-hour period, with a retest confirming its significance.
• Momentum turned bearish after an early bullish breakout to 1.279, ending in a pullback to 1.259.
• Volatility surged during the morning hours, peaking at 1.279 before consolidating.
• RSI indicated overbought conditions in the morning and oversold in the late afternoon, reflecting divergent phases.
• Volume and turnover spiked during the 02:45–05:00 ET window, aligning with the price high of 1.286.

Nexo/Tether (NEXOUSDT) traded between 1.252 and 1.286 over the last 24 hours, opening at 1.262 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET and closing at 1.259 on 2025-10-05 at 12:00 ET. Total volume was 238,674.20, with turnover reaching 298,830.86 USD. Price action showed a bullish morning rally followed by a consolidation phase toward the lower end of the range.

Key support emerged at 1.255–1.258, where the price found repeated buying interest after midday. Resistance levels at 1.262–1.265 and 1.27–1.275 appeared to cap the upward momentum in the afternoon. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 08:30–09:00 ET, signaling a potential shift in sentiment. Additionally, a doji appeared at 11:45 ET, suggesting indecision among traders ahead of the next directional move.

Bollinger Bands showed expansion in the early hours following the price surge to 1.286, then contracted during the consolidation phase, indicating waning volatility. Price remained below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages for most of the day, reinforcing bearish bias. The RSI oscillated between 30 and 70, showing no consistent overbought or oversold extremes, while the MACD crossed into bearish territory in the latter half of the day, aligning with the bearish price action.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the 1.252–1.286 swing highlighted 61.8% at 1.274 and 38.2% at 1.266 as key levels, both of which were tested during the consolidation phase. A bullish breakout above 1.276 may re-ignite upward momentum, while a re-test of 1.254–1.255 could confirm bearish continuation for the next 24 hours. Investors should watch for a break of 1.276 or 1.254 for directional clarity.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtesting strategy involves entering a short position when the 20-period moving average crosses below the 50-period moving average (death cross) and the price is below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from a recent high. The stop-loss is placed just above the last 38.2% retracement level, and the take-profit is set at the nearest key support level. This strategy would have been triggered during the afternoon, aligning with the bearish momentum observed in the MACD and RSI. Given today's price action and volume, this setup appears to offer a high-probability short trade with defined risk parameters.