Market Overview: Nexo/Tether (NEXOUSDT) 24-Hour Performance

• Price declined from 1.274 to 1.244 amid bearish momentum and oversold RSI conditions
• Bollinger Bands showed tightening volatility before a sharp drop below the lower band
• Volume spiked during the 24-hour low near 1.244, confirming bearish continuation
• Key Fibonacci support at 1.244 was tested, with potential for further pullback or reversal
• MACD divergence and doji patterns suggest potential exhaustion in the current move

Nexo/Tether (NEXOUSDT) opened at 1.263 on 2025-10-09 12:00 ET and traded as high as 1.274 before falling to a 24-hour low of 1.244 at 2025-10-10 16:00 ET, closing at 1.244 by 12:00 ET. The pair closed 2.3% below its opening level, with a total volume of 353,068.58 and a notional turnover of $444,072.29.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed several bearish formations, including a long-legged doji at 1.260 and a hanging man pattern near 1.265, both suggesting bearish exhaustion. A sharp breakdown occurred after a bullish flag pattern failed to hold near 1.272, shifting momentum decisively lower. A key support level appears to be forming around 1.244–1.250, which was tested twice within the 24-hour period.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were both bearishly aligned, with the 50SMA crossing below the 20SMA, indicating short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50DMA held above 1.270, with the 100DMA and 200DMA at 1.267 and 1.264, respectively, suggesting a potential near-term reversal if price tests these lines with volume confirmation.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line just before the price drop, confirming a bearish shift. RSI reached an oversold level near 30 by the close of the 24-hour period, signaling potential for a rebound. However, divergence between price and RSI suggests caution, as the bearish momentum may not yet be exhausted.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility contracted significantly from 1.262 to 1.260 before expanding on the breakdown below 1.250. The 24-hour low at 1.244 occurred well below the lower band, indicating a strong bearish move. The current price sits just above the lower band, suggesting the potential for a retest of this level or a corrective bounce.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased notably during the sharp drop near 1.244, with the 15-minute candle at 16:00 ET showing the highest volume of the session (22,637.21) and confirming the breakdown. Notional turnover rose in tandem, reinforcing the bearish move. A divergence in volume and price occurred during the early 2025-10-10 session, suggesting mixed sentiment ahead of the final drop.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute move from 1.274 to 1.244, the 61.8% level is at 1.255 and the 38.2% at 1.263. The price briefly tested the 61.8% level before continuing lower. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement of the recent swing is at 1.269, and the 50% level at 1.266, both of which could provide near-term resistance if the bounce gains strength.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering a short position upon a close below the 1.258 support level with a stop-loss above the 1.263 swing high. The target could be set at the 1.244 low or the next Fibonacci level at 1.237, with a 1:2 risk-to-reward ratio. This setup would require confirmation via volume expansion and RSI divergence for improved signal accuracy.