Market Overview for Nexo/Tether (NEXOUSDT) on 2025-11-13

Summary
• Price drifted lower from 1.086 to 1.074, forming a bearish trend with weak bullish follow-through.
• Volume spiked on bearish moves, confirming bearish sentiment and lack of buying pressure.
• Volatility expanded during key swings, but price remained within Bollinger Band constraints.
• RSI and MACD signaled mixed momentum, with no clear overbought/oversold extremes.
• No strong reversal patterns emerged, suggesting continuation bias in the short term.

The 24-hour Nexo/Tether (NEXOUSDT) pair opened at 1.086 (12:00 ET − 1), reached a high of 1.094, a low of 1.068, and closed at 1.074 (12:00 ET). The total volume over the 24-hour period was approximately 183,803.50 and the notional turnover was around 195,215.85. Price action was marked by a gradual bearish drift, with bearish closes dominating in the 15-minute chart and no strong reversal patterns emerging.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a bearish bias, with 1.084–1.086 acting as a key short-term resistance and 1.072–1.074 forming a new support level. A 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern was visible around 19:30 ET, confirming a shift in momentum. The pair tested lower support levels multiple times, with bearish confirmation on each close. A potential 1.074–1.076 consolidation could precede a new leg lower if buyers do not emerge.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were in a downward slope, reinforcing the bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average remained above the 200-period line, suggesting a longer-term bullish trend, though the 1.076–1.078 level has now become the immediate support. A break below 1.072 could bring 1.068 into play as a deeper support.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD showed bearish divergence as the line stayed below the signal line with negative histogram bars. The RSI hovered near the 45–55 range, indicating neutral to mildly bearish momentum without overbought or oversold conditions. The 1-hour MACD mirrored the 15-minute behavior, reinforcing the bearish tone.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded as the price dropped from 1.094 to 1.074, with the bands widening in the afternoon. Price closed near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating bearish pressure and potential for a bounce or continuation. A break of the upper band could signal a short-term reversal, but such a move would require strong buying pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the early bearish breakdown, especially during the 19:30–20:30 ET window, where large bearish closes confirmed selling pressure. Notional turnover also spiked during the same window, aligning with the price movement. No notable divergence was observed, indicating strong alignment between price and volume.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the recent 15-minute swing from 1.094 to 1.074, the price found a temporary pause near the 61.8% retracement level at 1.083 before resuming the bearish trend. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement of the 1.068–1.094 move sits at 1.081, which could act as a potential turning point in the short term.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting analysis on MACD Golden Cross signals for NEXOUSDT from 1 January 2022 to 13 November 2025 identified 51 golden cross events. Short-term returns were mixed, with a median 1-day return of -0.13% and a 55% win rate—indicating no clear positive edge. Medium-term performance showed a cumulative average return of 0.86% over 30 days, slightly trailing the benchmark. Drawdowns reached as high as -1.46% on average around day 6, highlighting increased risk. These results suggest that the MACD Golden Cross strategy, while commonly used, did not provide a reliable signal for NEXOUSDT in this sample. Traders should consider enhancing the strategy with volume filters, higher-time-frame confirmations, or additional risk controls such as stop-loss and take-profit levels to mitigate losses and improve performance.

Over the next 24 hours, NEXOUSDT may test 1.072–1.074 for support. A break below this range could trigger a new leg lower, while a bounce above 1.084 could reinvigorate short-term bullish hopes. However, with bearish momentum intact and volume confirming selling pressure, caution is warranted. Traders should monitor 1.084 and 1.072 as key decision points.