Market Overview for Nexo/Tether (NEXOUSDT) on 2025-10-12

• NEXOUSDT traded in a range between 1.165 and 1.216, closing at 1.208, amid rising volume and strong momentum in the latter half of the day.
• A bullish breakout above 1.194 confirmed late on the 15-minute chart, supported by increasing notional turnover and volume.
• Key resistance at 1.202–1.204 and support at 1.194–1.196 defined the recent price action, with the RSI showing overbought conditions at close.
• Volatility expanded as Bollinger Bands widened, and price closed near the upper band, suggesting a possible continuation of the trend.
• MACD crossed above signal line and remained in positive territory, reinforcing the bullish bias with strong histogram expansion in the final hours.

Nexo/Tether (NEXOUSDT) opened at 1.180 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 1.216 and a low of 1.165, and closed at 1.208 on 2025-10-12 at 12:00 ET. Total volume amounted to 388,357.95, and notional turnover reached 471,132.50 USD over the 24-hour period. The price showed a strong bullish bias, especially after breaking above 1.194, supported by increased volume and a bullish momentum shift.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a bullish breakout pattern after consolidating between 1.194 and 1.202 for several hours. A hanging man and engulfing pattern formed at 1.166 and 1.202, respectively, signaling a reversal in sentiment. A key support at 1.194 held multiple times, while resistance at 1.202–1.204 showed consolidation before a breakout late in the session.

Moving Averages

Short-term moving averages (20 and 50-period on 15-minute chart) were in bullish alignment, with the 20-period line running above the 50-period line, supporting the upward bias. Daily moving averages (50, 100, and 200-period) were in a multi-day bullish trend, with the price holding above the 100-period line.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned positive late in the session, with the histogram showing a sharp upward expansion, confirming bullish momentum. The RSI closed near 75, indicating overbought conditions, although this may be sustainable given the strong volume confirmation. Divergence between RSI and price was not observed, suggesting a continuation of the trend is likely.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a clear expansion in volatility, with price closing near the upper band at 1.202. The middle band was at 1.194, suggesting a strong move above key psychological levels. The expansion indicates that traders should monitor for a possible continuation or a retest of the upper band in the coming 24 hours.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged in the late afternoon and evening hours, with over 19,000 units traded per 15-minute interval after 15:00 ET. Notional turnover also showed a strong increase, confirming the price breakout. No significant divergence between price and turnover was observed, suggesting the move is well-supported by market participants.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels on the recent 15-minute swing showed a 61.8% level at 1.194 and a 38.2% at 1.202. The price broke above the 61.8% level and held above the 38.2%, indicating strong bullish conviction. Daily Fibonacci levels showed a 61.8% retracement at 1.186, which has been a key support in recent days.

Backtest Hypothesis

Applying a trend-following backtesting strategy based on the 20/50-period moving average crossover on the 15-minute chart, combined with MACD and RSI confirmation, could yield a high-probability setup. A long entry could be triggered when the 20-period MA crosses above the 50-period MA, and the MACD remains above the signal line with RSI > 50. A stop-loss could be placed below the last support at 1.194, with a take-profit at the next Fibonacci level above 1.202. This strategy may have shown positive returns historically in similar breakout scenarios.