Market Overview for Nexo/Tether (NEXOUSDT) – 2025-10-06

• Price action remained volatile with a bullish bias, closing above 1.27 after a strong overnight rally.
• Momentum picked up in early ET hours, with RSI entering overbought territory and volume confirming the move.
• Bollinger Bands showed a recent expansion, indicating rising volatility and potential for trend continuation.
• Key support at 1.263 held multiple times, with a resistance cluster forming around 1.273–1.275.
• Notional turnover spiked during the overnight and early morning sessions, with divergence seen after 15:00 ET.

The Nexo/Tether (NEXOUSDT) pair opened at 1.257 on October 5 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 1.28 and a low of 1.253 before closing at 1.28 at 12:00 ET on October 6. Total volume across the 24-hour window was 369,282.2 units, with notional turnover amounting to 466,235.0 USD. Price action revealed a bullish overnight trend, followed by consolidation in the early hours of ET.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the 24-hour period showed a clear shift in bias toward the long side, particularly in the overnight and early morning hours. A strong bullish candle on the 15-minute chart formed around 02:15 ET, closing near the high at 1.273. This was followed by a series of bullish continuation patterns, including a bullish engulfing formation at 05:45 ET as price rose from 1.265 to 1.268. Key support levels, most notably at 1.263 and 1.268, appeared resilient, with price bouncing off these levels multiple times. Resistance clustered around 1.273–1.275 showed some pressure, with price struggling to close above 1.275 despite several attempts.

Volume & Turnover

Notional turnover spiked during the overnight hours, peaking at 36,928.2 USD at 14:15 ET, coinciding with a strong bullish candle. However, as price moved into overbought territory in the late morning, turnover began to lag, indicating reduced conviction in the bullish move. A divergence between price and turnover was noted at 15:00 ET, when price hit 1.279 but turnover fell to 11,506.05 USD. This may indicate a potential short-term correction.

MACD & RSI

Momentum accelerated after 01:00 ET, with RSI pushing into overbought territory above 70 and holding for several hours. This suggests strong buying pressure, though a divergence in RSI was noted as price reached 1.279 at 15:15 ET. The MACD histogram showed a strong positive divergence during the overnight rally, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line at 01:30 ET. However, by 15:30 ET, the MACD line had begun to flatten, suggesting waning momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the overnight rally, with price breaking out of the upper Bollinger Band at 02:15 ET and staying above it for most of the morning. This expansion indicates a potential continuation of the bullish trend, but price has since moved into the upper band again, signaling the possibility of a pullback toward the 1.273–1.275 range for consolidation. A contraction in the Bollinger Bands could signal a reversal if it occurs following the current trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

Applying the described backtesting strategy, which relies on 15-minute RSI divergence and Bollinger Band breakouts, would have generated several high-probability entries during this period. For instance, the 02:15 ET breakout above the upper Bollinger Band coincided with a bullish RSI divergence, suggesting a strong buy signal. A trailing stop could have been placed just below the 1.273 level, while a target zone at 1.277–1.28 would have aligned with the recent resistance cluster. This approach could have captured the bulk of the overnight rally while minimizing exposure to the afternoon consolidation.