Market Overview: Nexo/Tether (NEXOUSDT) on 2025-09-26

• NEXOUSDT opened at 1.244 and traded between 1.205–1.292 before closing at 1.211.
• A strong bearish reversal formed midday, confirmed by a volume spike and RSI divergence.
• Volatility expanded after a consolidation phase, with Bollinger Bands indicating a breakout potential.
• Fibonacci levels at 1.209 and 1.231 show key support/resistance clustering.
• Momentum remains bearish, with MACD and RSI signaling oversold conditions at 1.21.

Nexo/Tether (NEXOUSDT) opened at 1.244 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET and closed at 1.211 by the same time on 2025-09-26. The pair reached a high of 1.292 and a low of 1.205 during the 24-hour period. The total traded volume was 1,077,358.62 units, with a notional turnover of $1,309,362.16.

The 15-minute OHLCV data reveals a distinct bearish reversal structure beginning around 17:15 ET, marked by a long bullish candle forming a bullish divergence on the RSI. This was quickly followed by a large bearish candle at 17:30 ET that engulfed the prior structure, forming a classic bearish engulfing pattern. Key support levels emerged at 1.215–1.211, where price found a floor multiple times after a sharp drop. Resistance levels were evident at 1.222–1.226, failing to hold as buying dried up.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed NEXOUSDT closing below both the 20 and 50-period MAs by session close. On the daily chart, the 50 and 100-period MAs crossed to the bearish side, with price well below the 200-period MA, reinforcing a bearish trend. MACD turned negative after 18:00 ET and remained in the negative territory, while RSI hit oversold conditions at 1.211. Bollinger Bands showed a wide expansion after 18:00 ET, indicating heightened volatility and a possible continuation of the trend.

Volume and turnover spiked dramatically around 17:15–17:30 ET, confirming the bearish reversal. A divergence was observed between price and turnover after 18:00 ET, as price continued to decline with lower volume, which could signal exhaustion or short-term consolidation. Fibonacci retracement levels at 1.209 and 1.231 acted as critical supports and resistances, with price holding above 1.21 for most of the session.

MACD and RSI indicators showed a clear bearish momentum, with RSI hitting oversold territory at 1.211. Bollinger Bands widened after 18:00 ET, indicating a potential continuation of the downward move. Volume confirmed the reversal but diverged after 18:00 ET, suggesting a possible short-term pause. Fibonacci levels at 1.21 and 1.231 appear to be pivotal for near-term direction. The bearish structure appears to be in place, and price may continue to test lower support levels or consolidate if buyers emerge around 1.21.

Backtest Hypothesis

The observed bearish engulfing pattern and RSI divergence at 1.226 could serve as a high-probability entry trigger for short positions, assuming confirmation by a break below the 1.21 support. A stop-loss above the 1.226–1.228 range would cap risk exposure. Given the strong volume spike and subsequent divergence, a trailing stop may be beneficial for capturing potential further downside while managing risk. The 1.206–1.209 Fibonacci level serves as a key initial target, with a broader target at 1.195 if the trend continues. This strategy would aim to capture a continuation of the bearish momentum, using volatility and volume as confirmation tools to filter noise and avoid false signals.