Market Overview for Nexo/Tether (NEXOUSDT) on 2025-09-25

• Price declined from $1.266 to $1.231 during the session, showing bearish momentum in the second half.
• RSI near 30 indicates potential oversold conditions after the sharp selloff overnight.
• Key support tested around $1.23–$1.235 with mixed follow-through on volume.
• Volatility expanded as price dropped below Bollinger Band midline.
• Bullish reversal signs emerged midday, but confirmation is pending.

Nexo/Tether (NEXOUSDT) opened at $1.261 on 2025-09-24 12:00 ET and closed at $1.239 on 2025-09-25 12:00 ET, with a high of $1.266 and a low of $1.228. Total 24-hour volume was 314,315.8 and turnover reached $374,214.23.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a bearish continuation during the early hours, with a breakdown below key support at $1.241–$1.245. A bearish engulfing pattern was evident in the 01:30–02:00 ET time frame as price closed near $1.248 from $1.251. A morning reversal attempt occurred between 09:30 and 10:15 ET, marked by a bullish engulfing pattern as the price pushed back above $1.240. However, a large bearish candle at 05:30 ET broke through a prior swing low, reinforcing the short-term bearish bias.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA both fell below price after 03:00 ET, signaling a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, price closed below the 50DMA and is approaching the 200DMA, suggesting a continuation of the medium-term bear trend. The 100DMA acts as a potential trigger zone for further declines if broken below $1.230.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line after 03:00 ET and remains bearish. RSI hit a low of 28 during the 04:00–05:00 ET selloff, indicating oversold conditions, though without immediate bullish follow-through. A slight divergence appeared between RSI and price during the 09:15–10:00 ET recovery, suggesting possible exhaustion in the downtrend.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the overnight sell-off, with price dropping well below the lower band. Price remained below the 20-period Bollinger Band midline for most of the session, with a brief rebound between 09:30 and 10:45 ET. A consolidation period is now forming near the upper band, which could lead to a breakout or reversal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the early morning sell-off, with the largest 15-minute volume spike at $1.239–$1.235. Notional turnover exceeded $38,000 in the 05:30–06:00 ET candle, confirming the bearish breakdown. However, volume waned during the 09:30–10:45 ET recovery, suggesting a lack of conviction in the rebound. A divergence between price and volume during this phase raised caution about the strength of the reversal attempt.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key retracement levels from the 01:45–05:45 ET decline include 38.2% at $1.238 and 61.8% at $1.234. Price found temporary support near the 61.8% level and bounced slightly, but failed to close above the 38.2% level. On a daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the broader bear move is at $1.224, now a critical watch point for further bearish extension.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bearish momentum and oversold RSI levels, a potential mean-reversion strategy could involve entering a long position if price closes above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $1.238, with a stop-loss below the 61.8% level at $1.234. The target would be the 50% retracement at $1.245, aligning with prior resistance and Bollinger Band support. This setup leverages the overnight bear exhaustion and morning reversal signs, offering a risk-reward of approximately 1:1.5.

Forward Outlook & Risk Caveat

While the short-term rebound suggests a potential near-term reversal, the broader trend remains bearish, with key support zones under pressure. A confirmed break below $1.230 could extend the move toward $1.224. Investors should monitor volume during the rebound phase and be cautious of a false breakout.