Market Overview for Nexo/Tether (NEXOUSDT) on 2025-09-20

• Price fluctuated within a tight range, ending near the 24-hour low with bearish momentum apparent late in the session.
• Volatility increased significantly during the early ET hours due to a sharp price rebound followed by a consolidation phase.
• Volume spiked during a key 1.30–1.315 price range, suggesting heightened market participation and potential resistance at 1.315.
• The RSI indicated oversold conditions during the late night but failed to trigger a sustained bullish reversal.
• Bollinger Bands showed a moderate expansion during the morning hours, aligning with the price action’s consolidation.

Nexo/Tether (NEXOUSDT) opened at $1.295 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET and traded as high as $1.33 before closing at $1.289 on 2025-09-20 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour period saw total volume of 653,074.74 and turnover of $819,460. Price action suggests a mixed sentiment, with a strong short-term rebound in the early hours of September 20, followed by a gradual consolidation and a bearish close.

The price action showed a key support at $1.290, which held briefly before the market drifted lower. Resistance levels at $1.305 and $1.315 were tested multiple times, with the most notable push seen in the early ET hours. A large bullish candle (1.301–1.315) during the 00:15 ET timeframe appeared to signal a potential reversal but was followed by a bearish continuation. A doji candle emerged near $1.295 in the afternoon, suggesting indecision.

Moving Averages and MACD

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a bearish crossover near $1.305 during the early hours of September 20, aligning with the price’s failure to hold above this level. The MACD line crossed below the signal line during the morning, confirming a shift in momentum toward the bears. The RSI dipped below 30 during the late ET hours, suggesting oversold conditions, but failed to generate a sustained bullish reversal.

Bollinger Bands showed a moderate expansion during the morning hours, coinciding with the price’s consolidation between $1.295 and $1.305. The upper band acted as a key resistance level, and the price touched it twice before retreating. The lower band at $1.290 provided temporary support but failed to prevent a continued decline in the afternoon.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked during a key price range of $1.30 to $1.315, particularly during the early hours of September 20, indicating heightened market participation. Turnover followed a similar pattern, with the highest notional value seen during the 00:15–00:30 ET period. Price and turnover were aligned during the morning hours but showed signs of divergence in the afternoon, as volume dropped despite the price holding near a key support level.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from $1.286 to $1.315 showed key levels at $1.306 (38.2%) and $1.300 (61.8%). These levels acted as temporary support/resistance during the consolidation phase. The daily chart showed a larger swing from $1.285 to $1.315, with a 61.8% retracement at $1.298, which held briefly but failed to halt the decline.

Backtest Hypothesis

Based on the observed price action and technical indicators, a viable backtest hypothesis could involve a trend-following strategy using a 50-period and 200-period moving average crossover. A long signal is generated when the 50-period MA crosses above the 200-period MA and RSI is above 30. A stop-loss is placed at the previous swing low, and a take-profit at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the current swing. The strategy assumes higher conviction in early ET hours, where volatility and volume are at their peak. This approach aligns with the recent price behavior, particularly the early ET rebound and subsequent bearish consolidation.