Market Overview for Nervos Network/Tether USDt (CKBUSDT)

• Price traded in a range between $0.004745 and $0.004836, with a slight bearish close.
• Volume spiked during key breakout attempts, especially around 20:30–21:15 ET.
• Momentum slowed in the final hours, with RSI showing bearish pressure.
• Bollinger Bands showed a mild expansion, reflecting increased short-term volatility.
• A bearish engulfing pattern emerged in the final 15-minute candle near $0.004785.

Nervos Network/Tether USDt (CKBUSDT) opened at $0.004779 on 2025-09-05 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.004785 on 2025-09-06 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of $0.004836 and a low of $0.004745. Total notional turnover was $189.39 million, with trading volume at 99.79 million tokens, showing moderate liquidity and directional volatility.

Structure & Formations

Over the 24-hour period, the price of CKBUSDT formed a bearish consolidation pattern after reaching a short-term high near $0.004836 in the late hours of the previous day. Key resistance levels emerged at $0.004815 and $0.004832, with price failing to break through either consistently. Notable support levels were observed at $0.004780, $0.004770, and $0.004750, all of which held as the pair approached those levels twice or more.

A bearish engulfing pattern was observed in the final 15-minute candle near $0.004785, signaling short-term bearish bias. A doji at $0.004806 also suggested indecision and potential reversal at that level.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages showed the price closing below both, indicating a bearish short-term bias. The 20SMA crossed below the 50SMA in the late hours, forming a death cross signal. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period moving averages are converging, but price remains above both, suggesting a bearish but not yet broken trend structure.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a contraction in momentum after midday, with the line crossing below the signal line, signaling bearish divergence. The RSI dropped below 50, reaching as low as 42 near the close, suggesting moderate bearish pressure and potential for a pullback toward $0.004770.

The RSI divergence between price and momentum was most visible in the early morning, as price failed to make higher highs while RSI showed a bearish divergence, indicating potential for a test of $0.004750.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential strategy could be to sell into strength around $0.004800–$0.004820 with a stop above $0.004830, targeting a pullback to $0.004770–$0.004750. This approach leverages the bearish engulfing pattern and RSI divergence, with risk management based on the Bollinger Band upper boundary and MACD crossover. The strategy assumes a continuation of the bearish momentum seen in the final hours of the period.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

The Bollinger Bands widened significantly after the pair reached $0.004836, indicating increased volatility and a potential breakout attempt. Price remained within the bands for most of the session, but moved near the upper band around 20:30–21:15 ET, coinciding with high-volume candlesticks. This suggests accumulation pressure but lack of follow-through, with sellers stepping in once the price approached $0.004820.

The lower band acted as a key support around $0.004750, with the price bouncing off it twice. The middle band at $0.004795 served as a key reference for trend direction, with price currently below it, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked during the $0.004790–$0.004820 range, especially during 20:30–21:15 ET, where the pair saw a $3.29 million turnover in a single 15-minute window. This indicates active interest from traders looking to capitalize on a potential breakout or reversal. However, the lack of a follow-through above $0.004820 suggests supply pressure from short-sellers or profit-taking at higher levels.

Notional turnover was high in the early morning, when the price was consolidating near $0.004800, but dropped off as the price moved lower in the final hours. This volume divergence implies increasing bearish conviction, as sellers are stepping in without a proportional increase in volume.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the $0.004745 to $0.004836 swing, the 38.2% level at $0.004794 and the 61.8% level at $0.004776 were both tested during the session. The price found resistance at the 38.2% level, but failed to break through it. The 61.8% level acted as support, with price bouncing off it twice during the final hours.

On the daily chart, the 61.8% Fibonacci level is at $0.004760, which could serve as a key psychological level for short-term traders. If the price breaks below it, it may target $0.004750 and $0.004740, with volume acting as a key confirmatory factor.

In the next 24 hours, CKBUSDT may test the $0.004770 support level, with a possible breakdown if RSI moves below 40. A rebound above $0.004800 could signal a reversal, but traders should remain cautious as the broader trend remains bearish. Volatility may increase if the price breaks either the $0.004820 or $0.004770 level.