Market Overview: Nervos Network/Tether (CKBUSDT) – Volatility Expansion and Key Support/Resistance Levels

• Nervos Network/Tether (CKBUSDT) traded in a 0.004191–0.004388 range over 24 hours, closing near key resistance.
• Strong volume expansion occurred during the 04:00–05:30 ET window, coinciding with a sharp bullish reversal.
• RSI showed overbought conditions mid-day before retracing, while Bollinger Bands reflected recent volatility expansion.
• A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 03:30 ET, confirming short-term buying pressure.
• Price retested a 0.00426–0.00432 consolidation range twice, suggesting near-term indecision.

24-Hour Summary and Key Data

Nervos Network/Tether (CKBUSDT) opened at 0.004242 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET, hit a high of 0.004416 and a low of 0.004191, and closed at 0.00429 on 2025-10-05 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 214,609,150.0 and notional turnover totaled approximately $922,456,000 (calculated from volume × average price).

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed key support at 0.00426 and 0.004314, with resistance forming at 0.00432–0.004365. A notable bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 03:30 ET, where the candle closed above the prior bearish candle, suggesting short-term reversal potential. A bearish divergence in RSI appeared alongside a doji at 07:00 ET, indicating potential exhaustion in the upward move.

Moving Averages and MACD

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed during the 03:30–04:45 ET window, signaling a bullish crossover that coincided with a sharp price rebound. MACD turned positive around 03:30 ET and remained above zero for several hours, reinforcing the bullish bias. The 50-period daily moving average, however, remains above the 200-period, suggesting a longer-term bearish trend.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands showed significant expansion during the 04:00–06:00 ET period, with prices breaking out to the upper band before pulling back. A volatility contraction occurred at 15:30–16:30 ET, indicating a potential buildup for a breakout or breakdown. Prices have since remained within the bands, with no clear consolidation pattern forming.

Volume and Turnover Divergence

Volume spiked sharply during the 04:00–05:30 ET period, reaching a 24-hour high with over 33 million traded units. This coincided with a bullish price rebound. However, a volume drop occurred at 10:00–12:00 ET despite a continuation in price recovery, pointing to potential divergence and weakening conviction among buyers.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 38.2% retracement level of the 0.004191–0.004388 swing was at 0.004276, a level tested twice and rejected. The 61.8% retracement level at 0.004349 provided strong resistance during the 04:45–06:00 ET period, with price failing to hold above it. These levels suggest potential short-term trading ranges.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering a long position on a bullish engulfing pattern confirmed by volume expansion and a closing above the 20-period moving average. A stop-loss could be placed below the prior swing low, with a target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. This strategy would benefit from the morning breakout on 2025-10-05 and could have captured a significant portion of the upward move.