Market Overview for Nervos Network/Tether (CKBUSDT)

Summary
• Price declined from 0.0034 to 0.003331 over 24 hours amid declining momentum and high volatility.
• Key support tested near 0.003228 with a bearish engulfing pattern around 0.003256.
• RSI entered oversold territory, while volume spiked near lows, indicating short-term exhaustion.

Nervos Network/Tether (CKBUSDT) opened at 0.0034 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.003529 and a low of 0.003228, closing at 0.003331 on 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 127,510,050.0, with a notional turnover of approximately $431,469 (using closing prices). The pair shows a bearish bias with price below both 20-period and 50-period moving averages, indicating further downside could be expected.

Structurally, the price action reveals a significant bearish engulfing pattern around 0.003256, which may signal a continuation of the downtrend. A key support level appears to be forming near 0.003228, while resistance is evident at 0.003331. On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average sits at 0.003293 and the 50-period at 0.003308, both above the current price, reinforcing bearish momentum.

MACD is negative and below the signal line, suggesting a lack of bullish momentum. RSI has dipped into the oversold region near 25, hinting at potential near-term buying interest. However, this should be validated by a clear break above 0.003331. Bollinger Bands show a recent expansion, with prices closing near the lower band, reinforcing volatility and bearish bias.

Volume spiked significantly during the low near 0.003228, indicating increased selling pressure. However, volume has since declined, suggesting exhaustion in the downside move. A divergence between price and volume may hint at a potential short-term reversal, but confirmation is needed before drawing strong conclusions.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent high to low (0.003529 to 0.003228) place key levels at 0.003368 (38.2%) and 0.003294 (61.8%). Prices are currently near the 61.8% level, suggesting a possible bounce or continuation of the trend depending on volume and order flow confirmation.

Backtest Hypothesis
A backtest was conducted using an RSI-based strategy: entering long when RSI(14) drops below 30 and exiting after a fixed 5-day hold. The results showed poor performance, with a cumulative P&L that underperformed a buy-and-hold approach and a Sharpe ratio indicating weak risk-adjusted returns. The strategy’s fixed holding period failed to capture sufficient upside, while exposure to downside volatility hurt overall returns. These findings align with the current technical landscape, where RSI is in oversold territory but lacks a strong bullish catalyst. Traders might consider refining this approach by incorporating tighter exits or dynamic thresholds to better align with the market’s behavior.