Market Overview for Nervos Network/Tether (CKBUSDT)

• Price surged to 0.004502 before retracting to 0.004382, forming multiple bullish and bearish reversals.
• Volatility and volume spiked sharply in the afternoon, with turnover peaking during the 19:00–21:00 ET window.
• RSI indicated overbought conditions in the late afternoon before reversing into oversold territory.
• Bollinger Bands showed moderate expansion during the bounce, with price hovering near the midline after consolidation.
• The 24-hour volume reached 93.4 million, but turnover remained relatively low, suggesting potential divergence.

Nervos Network/Tether (CKBUSDT) opened at 0.004339 on 2025-10-02 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.004392 on 2025-10-03 at the same time. The pair surged to a high of 0.004502 and fell to a low of 0.004382 during the 24-hour period, with total trading volume amounting to 93,442,988 and turnover of approximately $409,695.

The price exhibited a clear bearish reversal in the early morning (03:00–05:00 ET), where a long upper wick and a bearish engulfing pattern indicated strong selling pressure. A subsequent rally in the afternoon, marked by a bullish engulfing pattern between 18:30 and 19:00 ET, pushed the price to its peak. However, this failed to hold, and a broad bearish flag formed afterward. Key support levels were identified at 0.004382 (initial low) and 0.004370, with resistance at 0.004410 and 0.004450. A doji formed near 0.004435, signaling indecision, and a potential break below 0.004382 could signal further downside.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed over multiple times, suggesting choppy momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is below the 200-period MA, indicating a longer-term bearish bias. The MACD crossed into the negative territory in the early morning and remained below the signal line, suggesting bearish momentum. The RSI bottomed at 29 in the early morning and rebounded into neutral territory, with potential for a short-term bounce.

Bollinger Bands expanded in the afternoon following the rally, with the price closing near the midline after consolidating in the lower half of the band. This suggests reduced volatility following the breakout attempt. The 20-period Bollinger Bands show a potential test of the upper band at 0.004450, with a break likely to trigger further buying. Volume spiked during the 19:00–21:00 ET rally but did not confirm a strong follow-through, suggesting mixed conviction.

Traders may watch for a potential bounce off the 0.004382 support level or a break below it, which could target 0.004370–0.004360. A recovery above 0.004410 and a close above 0.004450 would signal a reversal in sentiment. However, caution is warranted given the divergence in turnover and the presence of bearish indicators.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtest strategy aims to exploit short-term reversals based on a combination of RSI and candlestick patterns. Specifically, it triggers a long entry when RSI dips below 30 and a bullish engulfing pattern forms, while a short entry is initiated when RSI rises above 70 and a bearish engulfing or doji appears. A stop-loss is placed at 0.004360, and a take-profit at 0.004450. Given the recent price action and the RSI’s fluctuation between 29 and 65, the strategy could have captured the rally from 0.004382 to 0.004502 had it been triggered on 19:00–21:00 ET. The current market environment, with a mix of bearish and bullish signals, aligns with the strategy’s design and offers a test case for its validity.