Market Overview: Nervos Network/Tether (CKBUSDT) – 24-Hour Analysis

• Price declined from 0.004342 to 0.004160, signaling bearish momentum with oversold RSI conditions near the 24-hour low.
• Volatility increased after a consolidation phase, with volume spiking during the sharp drop below key support levels.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed near 0.004220, suggesting potential for further downside.
• Bollinger Bands widened as the price tested the lower band, indicating heightened risk of follow-through sell-off.
• A divergence between declining price and mixed turnover may signal cautious short-term positioning.

Nervos Network/Tether (CKBUSDT) opened at 0.004242 on 2025-10-08 12:00 ET and reached a high of 0.004342 before closing at 0.004160 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-09. The 24-hour volume was 73,664,998.0 with a notional turnover of $314,787.70, indicating heightened activity during the bearish breakdown.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute OHLCV data reveals a bearish structure, with a key support level forming at 0.004220, where a bearish engulfing pattern appeared. This is followed by a further breakdown to 0.004160, which tested a lower support level near 0.004150. The price action appears to be trending downward, with a potential continuation to 0.004130 if bearish momentum remains intact.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both below current price levels, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 100- and 200-period lines, suggesting medium-term bearish pressure. The price is below all three daily moving averages, aligning with the current downtrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram has turned negative and is widening, indicating increasing bearish momentum. RSI is in oversold territory, near 28, which could suggest a short-term bounce is possible, but a sustained move back above 0.004200 would be needed to signal a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded as the price moved toward the lower Bollinger Band, reaching 0.004160. This suggests heightened selling pressure and potential for a bounce from the band or further downside. The 15-minute chart shows a widening of the bands, consistent with increased uncertainty in the market.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakdown below 0.004220, confirming the bearish signal. Notional turnover also increased, suggesting significant participation. However, there was a divergence between falling prices and mixed turnover after 00:00 ET, indicating possible uncertainty or short-term profit-taking.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent swing high (0.004342) and low (0.004160), the 38.2% retracement is at 0.004255 and the 61.8% retracement is at 0.004211. These levels may act as short-term resistance if there is a bounce. A failure to hold above 0.004211 could signal a deeper correction to 0.004150 or lower.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current bearish setup, a backtest strategy could be structured around a short position triggered when the price breaks below the 0.004220 support level, with a stop-loss above the 0.004255 Fibonacci retracement and a take-profit at 0.004130. The RSI entering oversold territory could be used to adjust the stop-loss slightly higher as the position is held. This approach would align with the bearish momentum, expanding Bollinger Bands, and confirmation from volume and MACD.