Market Overview for Nervos Network/Tether (CKBUSDT) – 24-Hour Analysis (2025-09-25)

• Price opened at $0.004447, reaching a high of $0.004458 and a low of $0.004058 before closing at $0.004162.
• A sharp sell-off occurred overnight, with price dropping below key psychological levels.
• Total volume reached 222,818,452, while notional turnover hit ~$935,278, reflecting heightened bearish pressure.
• Multiple rejection clusters formed near $0.00438–$0.00445 and $0.00421–$0.00427, indicating strong short-term support/resistance.
• Momentum indicators show oversold conditions at close, suggesting a potential bounce.

Nervos Network/Tether (CKBUSDT) opened at $0.004447 at 12:00 ET – 1 and closed at $0.004162 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-25. The pair reached a high of $0.004458 and a low of $0.004058, with total volume of 222,818,452 and turnover of approximately $935,278. The session featured multiple bearish breakdowns and a late rebound.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour OHLC structure shows a distinct bearish bias, with a sharp selloff dominating the session. Price tested and failed at key resistance levels, including $0.004458 and $0.00438–0.00445. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed in the early hours, followed by a double bottom near $0.00421. A potential support cluster appears at $0.00416–0.00418, where price found temporary buying interest.

Moving Averages

Short-term 15-minute MA lines (20/50) show clear bearish dominance, with price below both and trending downward. Daily MA (50/100/200) are likely aligned to the downside as well, reinforcing the bearish trend. A crossover of the 50/20 MA lines may signal an intermediate pullback in the next 24 hours, though the overall direction remains bearish.

MACD & RSI

MACD is in negative territory, with the histogram contracting slightly toward the end of the session, suggesting some exhaustion in the selloff. RSI reached oversold levels near 30 at the close, hinting at a potential rebound in the short term. However, bearish momentum still dominates, and a rebound may struggle to sustain without clear volume confirmation.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly overnight as price fell below the lower Bollinger band. This expansion often precedes a reversion to the mean, which could mean a pullback toward the mid-band (~$0.00426) in the coming hours. Price appears to have entered a consolidation phase after the sharp drop, which may result in a temporary bounce.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the overnight sell-off, particularly between $0.00438 and $0.00416, confirming bearish pressure. Turnover aligned with the volume spike, with no signs of divergence. However, volume dropped off significantly in the last few hours, indicating some exhaustion. The current low volume may support a short-term bounce, but sustained recovery requires increased participation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the overnight swing from $0.004458 to $0.004058, key retracement levels include:- 38.2% at ~$0.00429- 61.8% at ~$0.00436
Price may find support at these levels in the next 24 hours if the bounce continues. A failure to hold at 38.2% could signal renewed bearish momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent price behavior, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a short entry triggered when price closes below the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed just above the most recent swing high. A trailing stop could be used as price declines, targeting a risk-to-reward ratio of at least 1:2. This strategy aligns with the bearish momentum and structural weaknesses observed in the 24-hour data.