Market Overview for Nervos Network/Tether (CKBUSDT): 2025-11-03

Nervos Network/Tether (CKBUSDT) opened at 0.003359 on 2025-11-02 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.003381, and closed at 0.003167 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-11-03. The 24-hour trading volume was approximately 230.1 million units, with a total turnover of about $743,538. Price action shows signs of consolidation after a sharp decline in the early part of the session.

• Price declined from 0.003381 to 0.003167, showing bearish momentum in the 24-hour timeframe.• Volume spiked significantly during the early hours of 2025-11-03, aligning with the price drop.• A notable bearish engulfing pattern appeared in the 17:00–18:00 ET timeframe.• Bollinger Bands indicate a volatility expansion in the final 6 hours of the session.• RSI-14 appears to be approaching oversold territory, suggesting potential for a near-term rebound.

Structure & Formations

Price action on the 15-minute chart reveals a sharp bearish reversal following a late-night rally. A bearish engulfing pattern formed between 17:00 and 18:00 ET, suggesting conviction in the downward move. A key support level appears to have been breached near 0.00331, with the next major support likely near 0.00326–0.00325. Resistance may re-emerge in the 0.00333–0.00335 zone, particularly if bullish momentum returns.

Key Candlestick Patterns

The bearish engulfing pattern observed at the start of the decline (17:00–18:00 ET) was confirmed by strong volume. A doji appeared near 0.00333 in the early morning, indicating indecision. The final candle (12:00–12:15 ET) was a small bullish reversal, hinting at potential short-covering or minor buying interest.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were both bearishly aligned, with price closing below both. This reinforces the bearish bias in the short term. The 50-period MA has been acting as a dynamic resistance, while the 20-period MA appears to be accelerating downward. On the daily chart, price remains below the 50, 100, and 200-period MAs, which suggests a medium-term bearish trend is in place.

Implications for Trend

Price remains under pressure in both short- and medium-term timeframes. A break above the 50-period MA on the daily chart could signal a potential trend reversal, but that is unlikely in the near term given the current structure.

MACD & RSI

MACD for the 15-minute timeframe shows bearish divergence, with both the line and histogram declining as price approaches the 0.00316–0.00317 level. RSI-14 has fallen to 28, indicating oversold conditions, although bearish momentum appears to have faded. A rebound in RSI to above 35 could indicate a short-term pullback, but a retest of the 0.00326 support level is still likely.

Momentum Indicators

The RSI has confirmed a possible oversold condition, but the MACD has not yet shown a bullish crossover. This suggests that while a rebound is possible, it may not be strong enough to break the bearish trend unless accompanied by a sharp volume spike.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have widened significantly in the last 6 hours of trading, with price currently near the lower band at 0.003167. This indicates heightened volatility and a potential oversold condition. A break above the mid-band could signal a short-term bounce, but a return to the lower band remains likely without a clear catalyst.

Volatility Expansion

The recent expansion of Bollinger Bands suggests increased uncertainty in the market. Price has spent the last two hours near the lower band, which may signal exhaustion among bears but not necessarily a reversal. A break above the mid-band could be used as a trigger for a short-term long position.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the early hours of the session, particularly around 02:45–03:00 ET and 04:15–05:00 ET, confirming the bearish move. Notional turnover followed the volume closely, with no significant divergence. The final 15 minutes of trading saw a small increase in volume, suggesting that short-covering or minor buying pressure may be emerging.

Price vs. Turnover Analysis

The alignment between price and volume suggests strong conviction in the bearish move. While the final candle showed a modest increase in volume, it lacked sufficient strength to push price back above key levels, indicating limited demand for long positions at the moment.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.003381 to 0.003167, the 23.6% retracement level is at 0.003318 and the 38.2% level is at 0.003254. These levels could provide potential resistance for a short-term bounce. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement of the year-to-date move is near 0.00329, while the 61.8% level is at 0.00335. A break above the 38.2% level could signal renewed bullish interest.

Implications for Support/Resistance

The 38.2% retracement level on the daily chart could act as key resistance for any near-term bullish attempt. A failure to break this level would reaffirm the bearish trend, while a sustained close above it could signal the start of a new consolidation phase.

Backtest Hypothesis

The RSI-14 appears to be approaching oversold territory at 28, aligning with a potential entry signal for the proposed RSI-based backtesting strategy. However, the data source for RSI-14 values for CKBUSDT is currently unavailable, which prevents direct implementation of the strategy as described. To proceed, the exact symbol format and exchange (e.g., “CKB/USDT” on Binance) must be confirmed, or I can calculate the RSI locally from the available price history. Once the RSI-14 series is generated, the strategy can be tested using the specified parameters—entry on RSI < 30 and exit on RSI ≥ 30—over the 2022–2025 period. This will allow us to evaluate the viability of the approach based on actual price performance and RSI behavior.

Outlook & Risk

While the 24-hour session ended with price near the lower Bollinger Band and RSI at oversold levels, the broader bearish trend remains intact. A short-term bounce is possible, but a sustained reversal would require a strong break above key resistances and a surge in buying volume. Investors should remain cautious, as a retest of the 0.00326 support level remains a high probability next move. Volatility may remain elevated in the short term, and sudden moves in either direction should be expected.