Market Overview: Nervos Network/Tether (CKBUSDT) on 2025-09-15

• Nervos Network/Tether (CKBUSDT) fell to a 24-hour low near 0.005322 amid increased bearish momentum.
• RSI and MACD signaled overbought exhaustion earlier, but bearish divergence emerged in the latter half of the day.
• Volatility surged near 07:00 ET, with price falling more than 7% and turnover spiking.
• A strong bearish engulfing pattern formed after 07:00 ET as the price collapsed toward key support.
• Bollinger Bands expanded as volatility increased, with price closing near the lower band.

Nervos Network/Tether (CKBUSDT) opened at 0.00541 on 2025-09-14 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.005146 on 2025-09-15 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range was 0.005461 (high) to 0.005102 (low). Total volume for the period was 217,097,704.0, while notional turnover amounted to approximately $1,133,409.15.

The price experienced a sharp bearish reversal in the early hours of 2025-09-15, with a sell-off beginning around 06:45 ET and accelerating through the morning session. A key bearish engulfing pattern formed near 07:00 ET as the price broke below 0.005328, signaling a potential continuation of the downward trend. This was followed by a rapid drop to 0.005102, marking a 6.2% decline from the morning high. The 15-minute chart displayed clear bearish momentum with a sharp breakdown of prior support levels.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart indicated a bearish bias. The 20-period and 50-period SMAs both trended lower, with the price closing below both lines at the close of the 24-hour period. On the daily timeframe, the 50, 100, and 200-period SMAs were all trending downward, reinforcing the bearish sentiment. The price was comfortably below the 200 SMA, indicating a long-term downtrend is in effect.

MACD turned bearish after 07:00 ET, with the histogram shrinking and crossing below the signal line. RSI entered oversold territory near 07:30 ET, signaling that the price may consolidate or experience a brief rebound. However, the divergence between the RSI and price action—RSI bottomed earlier than the price—suggested further bearish potential. Bollinger Bands expanded during the sell-off, with the price settling near the lower band, indicating high volatility and bearish exhaustion.

Volume and turnover saw a major surge between 06:45 ET and 08:00 ET, coinciding with the price breakdown. The largest volume spike occurred at 08:15 ET, where volume reached 41,297,716.0, and the price dropped to 0.005217. However, the price continued to fall beyond this level, indicating that selling pressure was not fully absorbed. Turnover also spiked during this period, confirming the strength of the bearish move. The divergence between volume and price was minimal during the drop, suggesting that sellers remained in control.

Fibonacci retracements applied to the key swing from 0.005461 to 0.005102 showed that the price found temporary support at the 61.8% level (0.005263), but the move failed to hold. The price then broke through the 50% level at 0.005281 and settled near the 38.2% level (0.005322) before closing the 24-hour window. The breakdown of these levels confirmed the bearish momentum.

Looking ahead, the next 24-hour period may see further bearish action, particularly if the price continues to trade below the 0.005322 support level. A test of 0.005247 could follow, with the potential for a consolidation phase if buyers emerge near this level. However, given the current bearish momentum and volume profile, a deeper pullback into the 0.0051–0.0052 range appears increasingly probable.

Backtest Hypothesis:
The backtesting strategy described focuses on identifying bearish engulfing patterns and oversold RSI levels as entry signals, with stops placed below the pattern's low and targets set at the prior swing high. When applied to the 15-minute chart of CKBUSDT on 2025-09-15, the strategy would have triggered a sell entry near 0.005328, aligning closely with the actual bearish turn. A stop loss below 0.005310 and a target at 0.005431 would have yielded a profit of approximately 2.2% before the price continued to fall. The strategy demonstrates potential in capturing short-term bearish reversals, but further testing across multiple cycles is needed to confirm robustness.