Market Overview for Neo/Tether (NEOUSDT) – October 30, 2025

• NEOUSDT declined sharply over 24 hours, with price dropping from $5.161 to $4.836, amid a large volume spike.
• A bearish breakdown below key support at $5.05 confirmed a short-term bearish bias and low momentum.
• Volatility surged mid-day, with a 30-minute low of $4.881 and a high of $5.284 during a strong sell-off.
• High-volume bearish reversal patterns emerged after midday, especially during the $5.18–$5.05 drop.
• Turnover surged over $1.3M during the 17:00–18:00 ET window, indicating heightened selling pressure.

The Neo/Tether pair (NEOUSDT) opened at $5.161 on October 29 at 12:00 ET and closed at $4.836 by 12:00 ET on October 30, after hitting a high of $5.284 and a low of $4.821 during the session. Total volume across the 24-hour period was 834,781 contracts, with notional turnover exceeding $4.1 million. The price action reflected a sharp bearish bias, especially after a pivotal break below the $5.05 psychological level.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart shows a strong bearish continuation pattern, with price forming a large bearish engulfing pattern around the $5.18–$5.05 range. Key support levels include $5.05 (broken), $4.90 (holding), and $4.80 (potential next target). Resistance levels at $5.15 and $5.25 are now seen as near-term hurdles for any potential recovery. Notable patterns include a bearish harami and a long lower shadow on the $4.90–$4.836 candle, suggesting ongoing bearish dominance.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are in a death cross, with the 20-period MA below the 50-period MA. This reinforces the bearish momentum observed in the past 24 hours. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is below both the 100-period and 200-period MAs, indicating a medium-term downtrend remains intact.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line remained negative throughout the session, with the histogram showing a sharp bearish divergence during the late ET sell-off. The RSI dropped below 30 for much of the session, indicating oversold conditions, but failed to form a bullish reversal. This suggests that while the price is oversold, bearish sentiment remains strong, and a bounce may lack follow-through unless volume surges.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the session, with the Bollinger Bands widening after 17:00 ET. The price closed well below the lower band on the 24-hour chart, reinforcing the bearish bias. A contraction in the bands is not evident, so the current expansion suggests ongoing uncertainty and pressure from sellers.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the sharp selloff around 17:00–19:00 ET, with the highest single 15-minute volume at 83,696 contracts. Notional turnover also spiked during this time, reaching $4.1 million. The divergence between price and volume suggests that the selloff was driven by strong conviction, not panic. However, the lack of follow-through buying below $5.05 suggests further bearish momentum could follow.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, key Fibonacci levels include 61.8% at $5.10 and 38.2% at $5.16 during the $5.284–$4.821 swing. The 5.05 level, which acted as support earlier in the day, now serves as a potential 78.6% retracement target for further downside. If the price breaks below $4.90, the next Fibonacci level is around $4.81–$4.79, which could trigger further selling pressure.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong bearish momentum and confirmation from key technical indicators like MACD and RSI, a backtest strategy could involve a short entry at or below the 5.05 level, with a stop loss above the $5.15 resistance and a target aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $4.90. This approach would aim to capture the continuation of the bearish trend, leveraging the confirmed breakdown and low RSI readings as signals of potential exhaustion for bullish attempts. The high volume during the breakdown adds conviction to the trade setup.