Market Overview: Neo/Tether (NEOUSDT) 24-Hour Breakdown

• NEOUSDT fell from $6.89 to $6.618, a -3.38% decline over 24 hours.
• Key support tested at $6.677 and $6.618, with bearish momentum seen in the RSI.
• Volatility spiked in the early morning, with volume peaking at $56,427.28.
• A deepening bear flag pattern emerged after the 01:30 ET sell-off.

Opening and Price Action

Neo/Tether (NEOUSDT) opened at $6.797 at 12:00 ET-1 and closed at $6.688 by 12:00 ET, with a high of $6.89 and a low of $6.618. Total volume over the 24-hour window was 169,231.44, and notional turnover was approximately $1,132,851. The price action reflected a bearish trend, with a distinct break of key support levels during the early hours of September 19.

Structure & Formations

The price of NEOUSDT formed a bear flag pattern following a sharp sell-off that bottomed at $6.618 around 15:30 ET. A key support level was identified at $6.677, with a second critical support at $6.618. Notable bearish candlestick patterns included a morning doji at $6.725 and a dark cloud cover at $6.696, both signaling increasing bearish sentiment.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price fell below both the 20 and 50-period moving averages, confirming a short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50 and 100-period moving averages crossed below the 200-period MA, signaling a bearish crossover that aligns with the broader trend. The price closed below all three, reinforcing the bearish structure.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into negative territory with a bearish divergence between price and momentum. RSI fell into oversold territory at 27 during the early morning sell-off but failed to trigger a meaningful rebound, suggesting exhaustion in bullish sentiment. While a potential bounce could occur, the RSI remains under 40, indicating a continuation of bearish conditions is likely.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the sell-off, with the bands widening from 2.5% to over 5.5%. The price closed near the lower band, suggesting bearish pressure remains strong. A contraction in the bands is expected if the price stabilizes near the $6.677 level, but a breakdown below the lower band would likely confirm a deeper bearish phase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged sharply during the early morning sell-off, with the largest single 15-minute trade volume hitting 56,427.28 at 01:15 ET. This coincided with the price reaching its 24-hour low at $6.618. The notional turnover also peaked during the same period, confirming the strength of the bearish move. However, volume declined significantly after 06:00 ET, suggesting short-term exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the key 24-hour swing from $6.89 to $6.618, the price found initial support at 61.8% ($6.677) and a second-level support at 38.2% ($6.618). The bear flag pattern suggests a potential bounce from the 61.8% retracement, but a break of $6.618 could extend the move toward 78.6% at $6.503.

Backtest Hypothesis

Using the identified bear flag pattern and Fibonacci levels, a potential backtesting strategy could involve entering a short position on a confirmed break below $6.618 with a stop-loss at $6.677 and a target at $6.503. A trailing stop could be added to lock in gains if the price shows signs of consolidation. The MACD and RSI divergence suggest the strategy should also include momentum confirmation to avoid false breakouts and filter out noise in the short term.