Market Overview for Neo/Tether (NEOUSDT) - 2025-11-06

Summary
• NEOUSDT opened at $4.964 and closed at $4.836, with a high of $5.015 and a low of $4.699 over the last 24 hours.
• Price swung between key support and resistance levels, with a bearish bias forming after midday ET.
• Volatility expanded significantly, with intraday range of $0.316 and volume surging to 162,149.96 on high-impact candles.
• Momentum indicators showed mixed signals, with RSI near overbought levels early and overbought/oversold divergence later.
• Volume and turnover diverged in the late session, raising questions about price sustainability.

Neo/Tether (NEOUSDT) opened at $4.964 on 2025-11-05 12:00 ET and closed at $4.836 as of 2025-11-06 12:00 ET, with a high of $5.015 and a low of $4.699. Total 24-hour volume reached 162,149.96, while turnover hit $787,009.88, reflecting significant trading activity and price volatility.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern over the last 24 hours revealed multiple key levels: a strong resistance around $4.98–5.015 and a critical support at $4.78–4.80. Notable patterns include a bullish engulfing candle early in the session and a bearish harami near the close. A long bearish shadow appears after $4.82, indicating rejection of higher levels.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA has been trending lower after a brief crossover with the 50-period MA in the early hours. This bearish crossover suggests a weakening of short-term bullish momentum. On the daily chart, the price remains below the 50, 100, and 200-period MAs, suggesting that the pair is in a medium-term downtrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative in the midday hours, confirming a bearish shift in momentum. The RSI reached overbought levels early in the session, peaking near 70, then collapsed to oversold territory in the late hours. This divergence highlights a potential exhaustion in the short-term bearish move, but confirmation is needed before considering any reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly, with the bands widening to around $0.15 in the late afternoon session. The price traded near the upper band in the early hours, but by the end of the day, it dropped below the lower band, signaling a high-risk environment with potential for mean reversion or further bearish extension.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged to over 15,000 in the late afternoon, coinciding with a large bearish candle that pushed the price below $4.80. However, turnover declined slightly during the same period, suggesting a potential divergence. This could signal that the bearish move is not fully supported by buying interest, raising questions about the sustainability of the decline.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the key intraday swing from $4.98 to $4.699, the price found resistance at the 38.2% retracement level ($4.85) before retreating. A test of the 61.8% level ($4.79) later in the session failed, suggesting bearish pressure may continue unless a strong reversal develops.

Backtest Hypothesis

The MACD (12-26-9) strategy aims to capture trend reversals through Golden Cross and Death Cross signals. A potential signal was observed at 15:45 ET when the MACD line crossed below the signal line, triggering a sell position. A configurable exit rule (e.g., 5% stop-loss or take profit) would determine performance outcomes. Once the correct ticker format is confirmed (e.g., BINANCE:NEOUSDT), the full backtest can be executed to evaluate strategy returns, holding periods, and drawdowns against a buy-and-hold benchmark.