Market Overview for Neo/Tether (NEOUSDT) on 2025-10-04

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• NEOUSDT opened at $6.333 and traded between $6.114 and $6.479, closing at $6.124
• Price formed bearish engulfing and bearish continuation patterns post $6.40
• RSI and MACD confirmed bearish momentum, while volume surged during key declines
• Volatility expanded as Bollinger Bands widened, with price now near lower band
• Fibonacci levels at $6.158 and $6.121 could act as short-term support

Price Action and Formations

Neo/Tether’s 24-hour candle from 12:00 ET-1 to 12:00 ET saw a bearish bias, with a wide range of $6.479 to $6.114. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed around the $6.40–$6.396 range, followed by a continuation pattern as price broke below key support levels. A doji near the $6.20 level hinted at indecision, but the strong follow-through to $6.114 reinforced bearish sentiment.

Moving Averages and Trend

Short-term 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remained bearish, pulling lower in tandem with price. The 50-period daily moving average, while not explicitly visible in this 15-minute set, is expected to sit well above current levels, reinforcing the downward trend.

MACD and RSI

The MACD turned negative and remained bearish, with bearish crossovers confirming sell momentum. The RSI dropped below 30 during the last few hours, indicating oversold conditions that may not hold if volume remains strong to the downside.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands expanded as volatility increased, with the 15-minute chart showing a sharp contraction prior to the $6.396 breakdown. The final 24-hour candle closed near the lower band at $6.114, suggesting a potential bounce or continuation lower depending on volume confirmation.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the selloff from $6.396 to $6.156 and again as the price fell to $6.114. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 428,053.36, and turnover amounted to $2,672,440.16. The price and volume correlation during the decline suggests conviction, with no clear divergence at this stage.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci retracement levels from the $6.479 high to the $6.114 low include 61.8% at $6.158 and 38.2% at $6.196. These levels may act as temporary support zones. On the 15-minute chart, a retracement from $6.40 to $6.356 includes $6.377 as a potential reversal level.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy could focus on short positions triggered by bearish engulfing and doji patterns near key Fibonacci and Bollinger Band levels. Stops could be placed above the nearest resistance (e.g., $6.196), with targets at $6.121 and $6.090. MACD and RSI divergence could act as filters to avoid false breakouts. Given the current bearish momentum, a 15-minute timeframe strategy may yield stronger signals than daily setups.