Market Overview for Neiro Ethereum/Yen (NEIROJPY) – 2025-10-09

• NEIROJPY declined from 0.04465 to 0.04012 over 24 hours, posting its lowest in the observed period.
• Strong bearish momentum emerged after hitting 0.04427, with a sharp drop to 0.04006.
• High volume clusters emerged during the rally attempt from 0.0424 to 0.04465 and the subsequent sell-off.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 0.0430–0.0431, signaling potential continuation of the downtrend.
• RSI dropped into oversold territory, suggesting potential for a short-term rebound, though trend remains bearish.

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-10-09, Neiro Ethereum/Yen (NEIROJPY) opened at 0.04167 and closed at 0.04012 by 12:00 ET the next day, falling to a 24-hour low of 0.04006. The 15-minute OHLCV data shows a total traded volume of 110,068,130.0 and a notional turnover of approximately 4,184,265,577.65 JPY. Price action was largely bearish with multiple key reversals and divergences emerging.

Structure & Formations

Price formation reveals a strong bearish bias, with a key resistance level forming near 0.0430–0.0431 after multiple failed attempts to rally above it. A bearish engulfing pattern was visible around this zone, suggesting continuation of the downtrend. At the lower end, support levels appeared at 0.0424, 0.0415, and 0.04006, each of which halted or slowed the decline. A doji formed at 0.0415 around 04:45–05:00 ET, indicating potential exhaustion in the bearish move.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended downward, aligning with the bearish sentiment. The price spent much of the period below both averages, especially after 02:45 ET. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA was near 0.0420, while the 200-period MA was around 0.0425, placing the current price well below both, reinforcing the bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line during the sharp sell-off from 0.04427 to 0.04006, confirming bearish momentum. The histogram showed a sharp contraction and then expansion during this phase. The RSI dropped below 30 into oversold territory around 0.0401–0.0402, suggesting a potential short-term rebound. However, this may not be sufficient to reverse the larger bearish trend.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the sell-off, with price reaching the lower band at 0.04006. Earlier in the day, during the rally to 0.04465, price briefly touched the upper band before retreating. The bands themselves remained wide, indicating increased uncertainty and potential for either a bounce or further downside.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during key price reversals, particularly during the 04:00–05:00 ET and 22:00–23:00 ET periods, confirming strong bearish conviction. A divergence was observed between volume and price during the attempted recovery from 0.0424 to 0.0430, where volume waned despite price moving higher, indicating weak buying interest. Notional turnover also mirrored these volume spikes, reinforcing the significance of key levels.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 0.04465–0.04006 swing, the 61.8% level was at approximately 0.0417, which the price failed to hold above. The 38.2% level was at 0.0426, where resistance appeared during the mid-evening rally. These levels appear to be critical in determining the direction of price action in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could focus on entering short positions when the price breaks below the 61.8% Fibonacci level with a confirming increase in volume, followed by a stop-loss just above the 38.2% level. This approach would aim to capture the continuation of the bearish trend, provided the RSI does not overextend into oversold territory and a reversal pattern such as a bullish engulfing or hammer does not form. Given the recent bearish engulfing and weak buying on retests of key levels, this strategy aligns well with the observed technical bias.