Market Overview for NEARUSD on 2025-08-29

• NEARUSD opened at $2.538 and closed at $2.436 after a 24-hour low of $2.436 and high of $2.544.
• Price drifted downward in a bearish trend, forming several bearish engulfing patterns late in the day.
• Low volume persisted throughout the session, indicating weak conviction in price movements.
• RSI dipped into oversold territory (<30), hinting at a potential short-term rebound. • Bollinger Bands narrowed early in the session, suggesting low volatility and potential for a breakout.

Structure & Formations

NEARUSD experienced a gradual decline over 24 hours, with multiple bearish candlestick formations emerging. A key bearish engulfing pattern appeared around 14:45 ET, confirming downward momentum. The price action also showed a long bearish tail at the 00:45 ET candle, reinforcing the continuation of the bear trend. Notable support levels formed at $2.498 and $2.436, while resistance was observed near $2.515 and $2.533. A potential triple-bottom pattern was visible at $2.498, but it failed to attract strong buying interest.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages remained in a bearish alignment, with the 20SMA consistently below the 50SMA. This suggests the short-term downtrend is intact. On the daily chart, the price remains below the 50-, 100-, and 200-period SMAs, signaling a sustained bearish bias.

Momentum and Volatility

MACD remained negative throughout most of the session, with the histogram shrinking slightly in the final hours, suggesting a potential slowdown in the bearish move. RSI dipped to 26 early in the morning, indicating oversold conditions and raising the possibility of a near-term bounce. However, this must be confirmed with a follow-through in price.

Bollinger Bands narrowed significantly during the early part of the session, signaling a low-volatility phase. As the price broke out of the lower band late in the day, volatility increased slightly, but the move was not sustained. This suggests the market is in a consolidation phase ahead of the next directional move.

Volume and Turnover

Volume remained extremely low throughout the session, with several candles recording zero volume. The only significant volume spike occurred at 00:45 ET, where a large bullish move of $2.533 from $2.515 was recorded. This move, while positive, failed to hold, and the price retraced sharply after 02:30 ET. Notional turnover remained muted, with no divergence observed between price and volume. This suggests the market lacks strong conviction on either side.

Fibonacci Retracements

Using the recent swing high at $2.544 and the low at $2.436, the 38.2% retracement level is around $2.488, and the 61.8% level is near $2.466. These levels may act as potential support or resistance in the short term. The 50% level at $2.490 is key, and a close above this may signal a temporary pause in the downtrend.

Backtest Hypothesis

The recent oversold condition in NEARUSD’s RSI may suggest an entry point for a contrarian long strategy. However, historical backtesting of similar oversold-based rules (2022–2025) has shown limited success, with a maximum drawdown exceeding 85% and an average losing trade of -10%. While occasional rebounds (around 8% average) occurred, the high frequency of losses eroded capital. This underlines the risk of relying solely on RSI-based triggers without additional filters, such as a strict stop-loss or trend-following bias. Given the current low-volume environment and bearish structure, a cautious approach is advised.