Market Overview for MyShell/Bitcoin (SHELLBTC) – 2025-10-03

• MyShell/Bitcoin (SHELLBTC) traded in a tight range with a late-night decline and afternoon recovery.
• Price failed to break above 1.03e-06 resistance and fell below 1e-06 support in the early hours.
• Low turnover and declining volume suggest weak conviction in price movements.
• Key Fibonacci levels and 20SMA offer potential near-term support and resistance.
• Oversold RSI conditions failed to generate a strong reversal, indicating bearish momentum.

Overview

MyShell/Bitcoin (SHELLBTC) opened at 9.7e-07 on 2025-10-02 at 16:00 ET, reached a high of 1.03e-06, and closed at 1.01e-06 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET. The total 24-hour volume amounted to 147,384.2 units, while notional turnover stood at $149.30. Price remained range-bound for most of the session, with a late-night sell-off pushing it below 1e-06 before a modest rebound.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a consolidation pattern between 9.7e-06 and 1.03e-06, with a key resistance at 1.03e-06 and support at 1.01e-06. A bearish engulfing pattern formed during the early morning hours around 00:15 ET, signaling a reversal. Later, a doji appeared at 03:30 ET, suggesting indecision. The price failed to hold above 1.02e-06 multiple times, reinforcing the upper boundary of the range.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA (20-period simple moving average) oscillated within the range, staying aligned with the 50SMA. Both lines moved upward during the afternoon, reflecting a short-lived bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50DMA (daily moving average) and 200DMA were not available in this 24-hour data set, but the 100DMA likely remained above the current price, indicating a longer-term bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed weak bullish momentum in the afternoon but returned to negative territory overnight. The histogram flattened as the price approached its support zone. RSI dipped below 30 during the overnight decline, indicating oversold conditions, but failed to trigger a strong rebound. This divergence between momentum and price suggests lingering bearish sentiment.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands remained narrow for much of the session, signaling low volatility. Price hovered near the midline for extended periods, occasionally touching the upper and lower bands. A late-night drop pushed the price below the lower band briefly, but it quickly returned to the middle range. No significant expansion or contraction was observed in the bands during this period.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the afternoon recovery and again during the late-night decline, but turnover remained subdued due to the low price level. The high volume-low turnover relationship suggests that large trades may have moved the price without significantly increasing notional value. The lack of follow-through buying above 1.02e-06 highlights weak conviction among buyers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 1.03e-06 to 9.7e-06 swing, the 61.8% retracement level is at 1.01e-06, which aligns with the price's late-night support. The 38.2% retracement is at 1.02e-06, a level the price tested multiple times without breaking through. These levels are now likely to serve as key psychological zones for near-term price action.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtesting strategy involves entering long positions when RSI dips below 30 and exits upon a close above the 20SMA, with stop-loss at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. The data shows that RSI did enter oversold territory overnight, but the price failed to close above the 20SMA, suggesting the strategy would have triggered a long signal followed by an exit or stop-loss. The pattern reinforces the need for tight risk management and reinforces the importance of combining multiple indicators to filter signals.