Market Overview for MyNeighborAlice/Tether (ALICEUSDT) - November 1, 2025

• Price action remained range-bound, with a consolidation after a sharp morning rally.
• Volatility expanded mid-day, with increasing volume clustering near key support levels.
• A bearish engulfing pattern appeared near 0.2790–0.2780, suggesting potential downward pressure.
• RSI failed to confirm overbought conditions, indicating lack of conviction in the rally.

Opening and 24-Hour Summary

At 12:00 ET-1, ALICEUSDT opened at 0.2801 and traded as high as 0.2870 during the session. Prices found a low of 0.2725 before closing at 0.2819 at 12:00 ET. Over the 24-hour period, the pair experienced a total trading volume of 7,785,292.04 USDT and a notional turnover of approximately $2,196,156.

Structure and Candlestick Patterns

Price consolidation occurred after a sharp bullish thrust early in the morning, peaking near 0.2870. This was followed by a series of bearish 15-minute candles forming a bearish engulfing pattern near 0.2790–0.2780. A bearish continuation appears likely if support at 0.2770 holds. Key resistance lies at 0.2825, which has been tested multiple times and appears to act as a short-term ceiling.

Moving Averages and Momentum

The 15-minute chart shows the 20-period moving average (SMA) at 0.2810, with the 50-period SMA at 0.2798, suggesting a slightly bullish bias. However, the daily chart shows the 50-period SMA at 0.2805, and the 200-period SMA at 0.2780, indicating a more neutral to slightly bearish sentiment. The price appears to be hovering between the 20 and 50 SMAs, with no strong momentum pushing either direction.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands (20-period, 2 SD) show a recent volatility expansion with a widening of the upper and lower bands. At the time of the 12:00 ET close, the price sat just below the middle band at 0.2815, with the upper band at 0.2842 and the lower at 0.2789. A break above the upper band could trigger a short-term bullish move, while a test of the lower band may indicate increased bearish pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Levels

Key Fibonacci levels for the recent swing high (0.2870) and low (0.2725) suggest 38.2% at 0.2818 and 61.8% at 0.2776. The price closed just above the 38.2% level, indicating potential for consolidation or a possible bounce. However, a break below the 61.8% retracement could trigger a retest of the 0.2750 level.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked significantly after the 03:00 ET-1 time frame, with heavy buying pressure pushing the price higher before a sharp correction. Turnover increased in tandem with price volatility, with a notable divergence observed between volume and price during the 08:00–10:00 ET-1 timeframe. This divergence suggests potential exhaustion in the current rally.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bearish patterns and the lack of RSI confirmation for overbought levels, a potential backtesting strategy may involve short-term bearish entries on a break below the 0.2790–0.2780 support zone, with a stop loss placed above the 0.2815 level. A target of 0.2770–0.2750 could be considered, with a trailing stop initiated above the 0.2785 level to lock in gains. This approach assumes continuation of the bearish momentum and a lack of strong bullish reversal signals in the near term.