Market Overview for MyNeighborAlice/Tether (ALICEUSDT)

• Price action shows a bearish drift with key resistance at 0.3010 and support at 0.2800.
• RSI approached oversold levels, indicating potential for a near-term bounce.
• Volatility expanded in early trading, with volume peaking near the 0.3030 level.
• Bollinger Bands tightened after 02:00 ET, suggesting a potential breakout.
• Fibonacci retracement levels suggest a potential target at 0.2910 if bulls regain control.

Opening Narrative

On 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET, ALICEUSDT opened at 0.2977, reached a high of 0.3039, and closed at 0.2828 following a low of 0.2780. Total traded volume over the 24-hour period was 14,760,904.39 ALICE, with notional turnover of approximately $4,180,750 (based on average price).

Structure & Formations

The price action displayed a bearish bias, with a distinct breakdown from the 0.3030 resistance level after a 15-minute bullish candle. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at that level, confirming a shift in sentiment. Later in the day, a doji near 0.2810 suggested indecision among traders, hinting at a potential reversal or consolidation phase.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were both bearish, with price consistently closing below the 50-period line after 19:30 ET. The 50-period SMA on the daily chart remained neutral, suggesting the broader trend remains mixed.

MACD & RSI

The RSI dipped below 30 in the late hours of the session, signaling oversold conditions and suggesting a potential bounce. The MACD was bearish in the 15-minute timeframe, with the histogram contracting as the session progressed, indicating a slowdown in the downward momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility was seen to contract after 02:00 ET, with the Bollinger Bands narrowing and price trading near the middle band. This suggests a potential breakout or reversal. Price closed below the lower band, reinforcing the bearish sentiment in the final hours of the session.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked near the 0.3030 resistance level, confirming the strength of that area. However, a divergence emerged later in the session, with rising price action failing to attract corresponding volume, suggesting weakening bearish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the key 15-minute swing from 0.2780 to 0.3039, the 61.8% retracement is at approximately 0.2910. If price finds support here, it may signal a resumption of the bullish trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy was run using an RSI-based approach with an oversold threshold of 30, assuming a hold period of up to 7 days. Using daily close prices, the strategy appears to align with the observed bearish drift seen in the 24-hour period. Given the recent RSI dip below 30, this could signal a potential entry point for long positions, though traders should monitor for confirmation via higher-volume rallies. The backtest results, including equity curves and trade logs, offer a granular view of the strategy's performance from 2022 to 2025. Further optimization could include stop-loss and take-profit levels to mitigate risk.