Market Overview for MyNeighborAlice/Tether (ALICEUSDT) – 2025-10-03

• Price surged to a 24-hour peak of $0.3223 before consolidating near $0.3150.
• Momentum shifted from bullish to bearish as RSI flattened and volume cooled.
• Volatility expanded in the afternoon, with Bollinger Bands widening.
• A key resistance cluster at $0.3190–$0.3200 was tested but failed to hold.

Market Summary

MyNeighborAlice/Tether (ALICEUSDT) opened at $0.3062 on 2025-10-02 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of $0.3223 before closing at $0.3157 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET. The pair recorded a 24-hour trading volume of 3,157,719.89 and a notional turnover of $965,575.95. The session featured a strong mid-day rally but closed lower amid bearish consolidation.

Structure & Formations

Price moved in a wave-like pattern over the 24-hour window, forming a bullish impulse followed by a bearish correction. A notable bullish engulfing pattern occurred around 19:15–19:30 ET, pushing price above $0.3193. Later, a bearish evening star formation emerged near $0.3190, signaling a potential reversal. A key support level appears to have formed at $0.3150, where price found a floor in the early morning.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA (golden cross) around 19:30 ET, reinforcing the bullish momentum of the afternoon. However, the 50-period MA began to flatten and pull away by early morning as bearish pressure returned. Daily moving averages (50/100/200) remained largely uneventful, with the 50-day MA positioned below the 100 and 200-day MAs, indicating a long-term bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line surged into positive territory during the afternoon rally, peaking at 0.0021 before returning to neutral. This suggested that while momentum was strong during the bullish phase, it was not sustained. The RSI hit a peak of 56 during the rally, avoiding overbought territory, and ended the session at ~49, suggesting a balanced market. A bearish divergence began to appear in the late hours as price rose to new highs while RSI flattened, hinting at weakening momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the afternoon hours as the upper band pushed above $0.3200, with price reaching the upper band at one point. This expansion was followed by a retraction as the bands narrowed and price consolidated in a tighter range. The narrowing phase coincided with a flattening RSI and declining volume, suggesting waning directional pressure. Price closed just below the 20-period moving average, within the lower half of the bands, signaling a possible near-term pullback.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the bullish phase, with the highest single 15-minute volume at 193,150.33, corresponding to the hour of strongest upward movement. Turnover mirrored this, peaking at $31,069.33. However, volume dropped sharply in the early morning, despite price testing the $0.3150 level. This divergence between price and volume suggests the support may hold only temporarily and that further bearish action could follow.

Fibonacci Retracements

A key Fibonacci level at 61.8% (around $0.3165–$0.3170) was tested multiple times during the afternoon and early morning. Price bounced off this level in the early hours but failed to confirm its strength by breaking above the 38.2% retracement level ($0.3190). This suggests a potential short-term base forming in the $0.3150–$0.3170 range.

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtesting strategy involves a mean-reversion approach triggered by RSI divergence and a golden cross on the 20/50 MA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop loss placed below the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Given today’s price action, the strategy would have entered a long position around 19:30 ET during the golden cross and RSI divergence, with a stop loss at $0.3148. This position would have been closed at 03:15 ET when RSI flattened and the 50-period MA began to diverge. The strategy would have captured a short-term gain of ~$0.0012, with a risk-reward ratio of approximately 1:0.93. While not a high-probability trade, it reflects how traders may attempt to exploit short-term momentum shifts in a volatile market like ALICEUSDT.