Market Overview: MyNeighborAlice/Tether (ALICEUSDT) – 2025-09-26 12:00 ET

• MyNeighborAlice/Tether (ALICEUSDT) fell to a 24-hour low of $0.2912 before rebounding slightly to $0.2962 by 12:00 ET.
• Momentum indicators suggest oversold conditions but with weak divergence between price and RSI.
• Volatility expanded during the session, particularly after 17:30 ET, with a surge in volume and turnover.
• A bullish engulfing pattern emerged in the final 15-minute candle, hinting at a potential reversal.
• Bollinger Bands widened significantly, indicating increasing uncertainty among traders.

The pair ALICEUSDT opened at $0.309 on 2025-09-25 12:00 ET, hit a high of $0.3102, a low of $0.2912, and closed at $0.2962 by 12:00 ET the following day. Total traded volume reached 3,437,168.92 ALICE with a notional turnover of approximately $1,023,565.86. The price action was marked by a strong bearish bias in the early hours, followed by a tentative recovery in the late session.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a bearish breakout from a descending triangle formation early in the session, with the 0.3012–0.3038 range acting as a temporary resistance before a sharp decline. A bullish engulfing pattern appeared in the final 15-minute candle, with a close above the prior candle’s body. A long lower shadow and a narrow upper shadow suggest a short-term pullback attempt. Key support levels at $0.2931 and $0.2912 were tested, with the latter showing strong selling pressure. No significant bearish reversal patterns emerged despite the steep decline.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed bearishly in the early part of the session, confirming the short-term downtrend. By the end of the 24-hour period, the 20-period MA had moved closer to the 50-period MA, suggesting a possible convergence or reversal. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits above the 100- and 200-period MAs, indicating a longer-term bearish bias, though the recent price action shows a potential pullback could be forming.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned positive in the final hour, crossing above the signal line with a small histogram bar, hinting at a potential short-term reversal. However, the RSI remained in oversold territory for most of the session, dipping to 28 before closing at 42. The lack of a strong RSI bounce suggests weak conviction in the recovery. A bearish divergence between the price and RSI during the decline suggests that further bearish momentum could still be in play.

At this point, it’s important to examine Bollinger Bands, which displayed a significant expansion after the breakdown. Price closed near the middle band, suggesting a potential consolidation period.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility spiked after 17:30 ET, pushing the upper band to $0.3032 and the lower band to $0.2913. The price closed at $0.2962, near the middle band, indicating a possible equilibrium phase. The bands remain wide, highlighting uncertainty in the market. A retest of the lower band or a breakout above the middle band would signal the next directional move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged sharply after the initial downtrend, particularly between 17:30 and 19:30 ET, with a peak at 216,845.64 ALICE during the candle at 17:30 ET. Notional turnover increased in line with volume, suggesting that the bearish move was supported by strong selling pressure. The final 15-minute candle showed a volume spike of 79,433.73 ALICE, coinciding with the bullish engulfing pattern. However, the price failed to break above the prior candle’s high, indicating potential indecision.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 0.309–0.2912 swing, the 38.2% level (~$0.2992) and 61.8% level (~$0.3024) appear to act as psychological levels. Price bounced slightly near the 38.2% retracement level but failed to hold. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level of the larger bearish move remains untested and could serve as a potential support or resistance in the near term.

At this stage, the backtesting strategy provides a useful lens to evaluate the potential effectiveness of a pullback-based approach. A hypothetical buy-on-breakout of the 0.2962 level, with a stop below 0.2931, could be tested using this data.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bullish engulfing pattern and the MACD crossover in the final hour, a potential backtest strategy could involve entering long on a breakout above $0.2962 with a stop-loss placed below $0.2931. A target could be set at the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $0.2992. This approach would aim to capitalize on the short-term reversal signal while managing risk with defined stops. Historical data from the past 24 hours suggests that volume and momentum confirm the potential strength of this setup.