Market Overview for MyNeighborAlice/Tether (ALICEUSDT): 2025-09-17

• Price opened at $0.3656 and closed at $0.3609 after a 24-hour range of $0.3665–$0.3560
• A late-night pullback to $0.3593–0.3580 suggests oversold conditions may have emerged
• Volume remained elevated during consolidation phases but declined after midday
• RSI approached overbought during a midday rally but later fell into oversold territory
• Bollinger Bands show moderate volatility with price near the middle band for most of the session

The MyNeighborAlice/Tether pair (ALICEUSDT) opened at $0.3656 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET−1 and closed at $0.3609 by 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range reached a high of $0.3665 and a low of $0.3560, with total volume of 449,809.56 and a notional turnover of $159,414.88. Price action reflected a bearish bias after the afternoon low, with a potential support level forming near $0.3580–0.3590.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart displayed several key candlestick patterns. A long bearish candle at 02:00–02:15 ET with a close of $0.3681 marked a strong reversal after a midday rebound. Later, from 04:30–05:45 ET, a sequence of lower highs and lower closes suggested bearish exhaustion. The candle at 04:30–04:45 ET closed at $0.3599 on a high of $0.3605—forming a small bearish harami that may signal a short-term pause in the downtrend.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA crossed into bearish alignment after 05:00 ET, reinforcing the downward bias. By the end of the session, the price sat below both indicators, with a bearish slope indicating sustained selling pressure. On the daily timeframe, the 50DMA remains above the 100DMA, suggesting a broader downtrend in place. The 200DMA is a critical long-term support zone at $0.3565–0.3570.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line at 04:15 ET and remained negative for most of the session, indicating bearish momentum. The histogram peaked at 02:45–03:00 ET, then gradually shrank as buying pressure waned. RSI dropped below 30 after 05:00 ET, signaling oversold conditions. While this could be seen as a possible bounce trigger, the lack of a strong follow-through suggests caution.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the midday rebound, with price reaching the upper band at $0.3684–0.3692, but contracted sharply after 04:15 ET. By late morning, price hovered near the middle band, but by late afternoon it fell well below, indicating a period of consolidation. A narrow band formation from 07:00–08:15 ET may have set up for a potential breakout, though the price eventually broke to the downside.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during key price transitions, notably during the midday rebound and the late-night low. The candle at 02:45–03:00 ET had a high volume of $36,499.20 and marked a significant high. Conversely, the candle at 04:45–05:00 ET had a high volume of $22,272.28 on a close near the session low. Turnover and volume aligned well during bearish phases but diverged slightly during the midday rally, suggesting possible distribution.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements on the 15-minute chart highlighted the 61.8% level at $0.3645–0.3648 during the afternoon pullback, which failed to hold. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement level of the broader downtrend sits at $0.3620. The 38.2% retracement level at $0.3585 has held multiple times in recent weeks and appears to be the next potential support zone.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy focuses on breakout trading during volatility contractions on the 15-minute chart. Based on today’s data, such a strategy would have triggered long entries during the midday pullback at around $0.3648, followed by short entries during the late-night consolidation at $0.3593. Given the price action’s tendency to break below key Fibonacci and moving average levels after such contractions, the strategy appears to align well with the observed behavior of ALICEUSDT. The key would be to use trailing stops to manage risk while capitalizing on the directional bias.