Market Overview for MultiversX/Romanian Leu (EGLDRON) – October 3, 2025

• Price opened at 59.7 and surged to a high of 61.2 before consolidating near 60.4 at 12:00 ET.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed around 18:30 ET as price jumped from 61.0 to 61.2 in a single 15-minute candle.
• Volatility contracted after 22:30 ET with no volume activity until early morning, followed by a sharp drop to 60.2.
• RSI hovered near overbought levels for extended periods, signaling potential pullback risks.
• Turnover was muted for most of the day, with key volume spikes coinciding with price highs and pullbacks.

Opening Summary and Key Metrics

MultiversX/Romanian Leu (EGLDRON) opened at 59.7 on October 2, 2025, and reached a high of 61.2 before settling at 60.4 by 12:00 ET on October 3, 2025. The price traded between 59.7 and 61.2 during the 24-hour period. Total volume was 193.36 units, and total notional turnover stood at 9,377.43 RON. The session showed strong resistance at 61.2 and support at 60.4, with bearish consolidation in the final hours.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed several notable formations, most notably a bullish engulfing pattern at 18:30 ET, where the candle opened at 61.0 and closed at 61.2. This pattern often signals a short-term reversal or strength in bullish momentum. However, the price later stalled at the same level (61.2) with no further volume, suggesting a potential resistance. Later, between 02:15 and 03:15 ET, a bearish rejection occurred as price surged to 60.9 but then reversed lower to 60.4, indicating a lack of follow-through buying at higher levels. A doji formed around 03:45 ET, signaling indecision and a possible turning point in sentiment.

Moving Averages and Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were in bullish alignment for much of the session, supporting the upward bias before the late-night consolidation. However, by the early morning, the 50-period SMA began to flatten, hinting at weakening momentum. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period SMAs are in a mixed configuration, with the 50-period line just crossing above the 100-period line, suggesting a potential longer-term bullish setup.

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the 18:30 ET high at 61.2 to the 08:30 ET low at 60.2 showed that the price tested the 38.2% (60.8) and 61.8% (60.4) levels. The close at 60.4 aligns with the 61.8% retracement level, often a key support zone.

MACD, RSI, and Bollinger Bands

The MACD showed a strong bullish crossover in the early evening session, reinforcing the 18:30 ET bullish engulfing pattern. However, by 02:15 ET, the histogram began to contract and turned bearish, reflecting a loss in upward momentum. The RSI peaked at 72, indicating overbought conditions for several hours, which suggests a potential retracement in the near term.

Bollinger Bands demonstrated a contraction during the late evening and early morning hours, with price trading in a narrow range within the bands. This suggests a period of consolidation before a potential breakout or breakdown. By 08:30 ET, price briefly broke the lower band, indicating a possible bearish move, but did not close below it.

Volume and Turnover Dynamics

Volume patterns showed strong activity during key price swings: the 18:30 ET candle saw 8.04 units traded, and the 22:30 ET candle recorded 44.91 units traded as price retested the 61.2 level. However, volume dropped off sharply after 22:30 ET, with no activity until 02:15 ET, indicating a lack of conviction in the bullish move. The morning consolidation saw a mix of volume spikes (e.g., 60.25 units at 07:15 ET) but lacked a clear directional bias. Notional turnover mirrored this pattern, with high turnover during key price swings and muted activity during consolidation.

Forward-Looking View and Risk Considerations

While the 61.2 resistance level showed strong rejection after an initial test, a second test with stronger volume may be necessary to confirm a breakout. In the near term, a pullback to the 60.4 support level appears likely if volume remains muted and RSI continues to signal overbought conditions. Investors should monitor for a potential bearish continuation or consolidation around the 60.8–61.0 range, with a risk caveat of further downside if bearish divergence in the RSI and MACD persists.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could focus on entering long positions on a bullish engulfing pattern with confirmation via a close above the 50-period SMA, while placing a stop-loss just below the 61.2 resistance. This would align with the observed 18:30 ET candle behavior, where price surged and closed above key moving averages. A trailing stop could be implemented at the 60.4 level, with an exit trigger on a close below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. This strategy would be best tested on prior 15-minute data where similar patterns emerged with volume and price confirmation.