Market Overview for MultiversX/Romanian Leu (EGLDRON)

• Price declined from 39.98 to 39.8 by midday before forming a bullish reversal.
• A sharp drop to 38.64 was followed by a 1.4% rebound toward 39.57 by night.
• Volume surged in the 17:15–19:45 ET window, confirming bearish momentum.
• MACD and RSI suggest oversold conditions near 38.64, with potential for a rebound.
• Bollinger Bands contracted during consolidation, signaling potential for a breakout.

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-10-30, the price of EGLDRON opened at 39.98, reached a high of 40.87, and closed at 40.29 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-31. The 24-hour trading range extended from 38.64 to 40.87. Total trading volume was 1,062.86 units, with a turnover of approximately 41,072.75 RON. Price action and volume suggest a volatile but mixed sentiment, with key reversal and continuation patterns visible.

Structure & Formations

EGLDRON experienced a sharp decline after 17:15 ET, dropping from 39.96 to 38.64 over 2.5 hours, forming a bearish engulfing pattern. A recovery then followed, forming a bullish reversal near 38.64 before consolidating between 39.57 and 39.86. A key resistance appears near the 40.22–40.31 range, while support is visible at 39.57 and 38.64. A doji formed at the 19:45–20:00 ET window, indicating indecision before the price rebounded. The 39.93–40.04 range could also act as a pivot point in the near term.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages indicate a recent divergence, with the 20-period crossing above the 50-period after the 38.64 low, hinting at a potential short-term bullish bias. On a daily timeframe, the 50-period MA appears to be below the 200-period MA, suggesting a longer-term bearish trend, though the recent price action could indicate a near-term reversal.

MACD & RSI

The RSI dipped below 30 during the 38.64 low, suggesting oversold conditions and potential for a rebound. The MACD crossed into positive territory after the 38.64 bounce, aligning with the RSI signal and reinforcing the idea of a short-term recovery. However, the RSI remains below 50, indicating that bullish momentum is still tentative.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased as the price dropped to 38.64, with the Bollinger Bands expanding. Price then moved back toward the mid-band, indicating a potential stabilization. The recent consolidation near the 39.57–39.86 range suggests that the market is testing volatility levels, with potential for a breakout if the 40.22–40.31 resistance is tested.

Volume & Turnover

The most significant volume activity occurred between 17:15–19:45 ET, coinciding with the drop from 39.96 to 38.64. This volume confirmed the bearish momentum, but the subsequent 1.4% rebound was supported by smaller but consistent volume. Notional turnover during the drop totaled approximately 5,600 RON, while the rebound added an additional 1,800 RON of turnover. Price and volume aligned during the drop but diverged slightly during the recovery phase.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 39.98–38.64 swing, the 38.2% retracement level is at 39.33, and the 61.8% is at 39.10. The price bounced near the 61.8% level before rising to 39.57, suggesting a potential continuation of the upward move. On the daily timeframe, a major 38.2% retracement level lies near 39.78, which aligns with a potential target for a near-term bullish breakout.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy could be built around the bearish engulfing pattern seen on the 17:15–17:30 ET 15-minute candles (39.96 to 39.48). If this candle is interpreted as a signal for a short trade, the next 3 days of price movement—particularly the drop to 38.64—would represent a strong short-side confirmation. A trade model using a 20-period/50-period moving average crossover could also be tested, as the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA after the 38.64 low, indicating a potential entry point. Further validation could come from RSI and MACD alignment.