Market Overview for MultiversX/Romanian Leu (EGLDRON)

• Price surged from 45.6 to 47.9 but faced selling at 47.1 and 46.5.
• RSI hovered near overbought levels, indicating strong momentum but potential reversal risk.
• Volatility spiked during early morning hours, with volume peaking at 367.63.
• Bollinger Bands widened during sharp moves, suggesting market uncertainty and consolidation.
• MACD turned bearish at 47.1 and 46.4, signaling possible bearish continuation.

Opening Summary and Key Metrics

The MultiversX/Romanian Leu (EGLDRON) pair opened at 45.6 on 2025-10-12 at 12:00 ET, surged to 47.9, then retraced to close at 47.6 by 12:00 ET the next day. The total volume for the 24-hour period was 2,732.89, and the notional turnover amounted to 125,865.92 (based on amount × volume). Price action showed strong bullish momentum followed by consolidation and pullbacks toward key support levels.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a strong bullish bias in the early hours of the morning, with a bullish engulfing pattern forming between 17:45 and 18:00 ET on 10/12. Later, as prices retreated, a bearish reversal pattern emerged at 47.1 between 20:30 and 21:00 ET. A key support level appears to be forming around 46.5–46.6, where the price found repeated bids. A doji candle emerged at 46.5 late in the session, suggesting indecision and potential short-term range trading.

Moving Averages and MACD

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed into bullish territory during the first half of the session, reinforcing the upward move. However, the 50-period MA turned bearish after the 47.1 pullback, suggesting a shift in sentiment. The MACD turned negative after 21:00 ET on 10/12, with the histogram narrowing and a death cross forming as the signal line crossed above the MACD line—suggesting a bearish continuation.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Volatility

The RSI hit 70+ levels during the early morning, suggesting overbought conditions and the likelihood of a pullback. A moderate dip to 60 occurred during consolidation at 46.5–46.6, indicating moderate strength. Volatility, as measured by Bollinger Bands, expanded during the 47.1–47.9 rally and then contracted during the pullback phase, suggesting a possible consolidation phase ahead. Price hovered near the lower band during the 12:45–13:00 ET window, indicating bearish pressure.

Volume and Turnover Dynamics

Volume surged during the early morning session, peaking at 367.63 during the 45.5–48.2 rally, and then declined during the 46.4–47.1 pullback, suggesting distribution activity. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, with a high of 125,865.92 during the rally and a lower turnover during consolidation. A volume divergence was observed at 47.1, where price continued to fall despite volume dropping, signaling a weakening of bearish pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Levels

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the 45.6–47.9 swing, 47.3 represents the 61.8% level and 47.1 is the 38.2% level—both were tested and rejected. The 23.6% level at 47.7 acted as a temporary cap. On the daily chart, the 46.5–47.1 consolidation represents a key intraday support/resistance zone. If price breaks 46.4, the next target could be 45.9, while a breakout above 47.9 could push to 48.5.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed MACD death cross and RSI divergence, a short-term bearish strategy using a MACD Golden/Cross Death Cross system could be evaluated on the EGLDRON pair. This strategy would enter short positions on death cross crossovers (MACD line falling below the signal line) and exit on golden cross reversals. Using EGLD (Elrond) as a comparable asset, and assuming the EGLDRON ticker represents a tradable instrument on a liquid market, the strategy could be backtested from 2022-01-01 to today, with stop-loss and take-profit levels based on Bollinger Band volatility and Fibonacci retracements.