Market Overview for MultiversX/Romanian Leu (EGLDRON)

• EGLDRON fell to a 24-hour low of 16.7 RON before rallying to 44.9 RON by 12:00 ET.
• Price broke below key support levels, confirming bearish momentum on high-volume selloffs.
• RSI entered oversold territory near 30, suggesting a potential short-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands contracted pre-dip, followed by sharp expansion post-16:00 ET.
• Volume spiked during the 21:15–21:30 ET crash, confirming bearish conviction.

The MultiversX/Romanian Leu (EGLDRON) pair opened at 56.6 RON on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET and fell sharply to 16.7 RON over the next 10.5 hours before stabilizing around 44.9 RON by 12:00 ET. Total volume traded in the 24-hour window was 9,443.6 RON, with a notional turnover of 687,430 RON. The price action displayed strong bearish bias, particularly between 21:15 and 21:30 ET, when the pair plunged from 47.4 to 31.8 RON on a volume of 2,642.59 RON, indicating heavy selling pressure.

Structure and formations revealed a critical support level at 56.0 RON, which was decisively breached. A long bearish candle at 21:15 ET (high 47.4, low 16.7, close 31.8) confirmed a breakdown. Subsequent price action formed a bullish rebound but failed to reclaim the 56.0–56.3 RON range. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 19:30–19:45 ET, followed by a doji at 20:45 ET, signaling exhaustion but no reversal. Resistance is now at 45.1–45.4 RON, with key support at 44.1–43.8 RON.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a bearish crossover, with the 20-period MA dipping below the 50-period MA. The daily chart confirmed this with the 50-period MA crossing below the 100- and 200-period MAs, reinforcing the bearish trend. Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped to 30 by the end of the 24-hour period, indicating oversold conditions and a potential short-term rebound. However, MACD remained in negative territory, with a bearish histogram suggesting that the selling pressure is likely to persist.

Bollinger Bands displayed a period of contraction before the 21:15 ET selloff, followed by a sharp expansion that engulfed most of the price action after the low. Price has since traded near the lower band but failed to break it decisively, suggesting continued bearish pressure. Volume and turnover spiked sharply during the selloff, with the 21:15–21:30 ET candle representing over 40% of the total daily volume. However, the rebound after the 44.1 RON support level came on lower volume, indicating weak follow-through. Fibonacci retracements from the 16.7–44.9 RON swing show 61.8% at 39.1 RON and 38.2% at 42.0 RON, both of which were tested in the closing hours.

EGLDRON could face further downward pressure if 44.1 RON fails to hold, with the next support at 43.1 RON. A close above 45.4 RON may rekindle bullish momentum but is unlikely without a significant increase in volume and positive divergences in the RSI. Investors should remain cautious for the next 24 hours, as the market appears vulnerable to another test of 44.1 RON and could see renewed volatility if larger participants re-enter the market.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could focus on the 21:15–21:30 ET selloff, using a combination of Bollinger Band breakouts and volume spikes to identify high-probability short entries. A long entry might be triggered on a confirmed close above the 44.1 RON support, with a target at 45.4 RON and a stop at 43.8 RON. This strategy would benefit from incorporating time-based filters (e.g., limiting entries to 4–6 hours after key support/breakout) to avoid whipsaws in low-volatility environments. The success of such a strategy would depend on the strength of volume and divergence in the RSI, making it a viable candidate for short-term countertrend or breakout trading over the next 7–10 days.