Market Overview: MultiversX/Romanian Leu (EGLDRON)

• Price rallied to a 24-hour high of 61.3 before retracting to close near 60.8.
• Key resistance at 61.1–61.3 and support at 59.7–60.0 showed defined volatility ranges.
• Volume spiked during the 14:30 ET sell-off, with 264.43 units traded in a sharp reversal.
• RSI indicated overbought conditions above 61.3 and oversold below 59.7, reinforcing retracement levels.
• Bollinger Band contraction suggested a potential breakout phase, with price near the upper band.

Price Action & Open/Close Summary

The MultiversX/Romanian Leu (EGLDRON) opened at 59.2 on 2025-09-04 at 12:00 ET, surged to a 24-hour high of 61.6, and closed at 60.8 on 2025-09-05 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 2,054.37 units, with a notional turnover of approximately 125,400 RON. The price showed a volatile push above 61.3, followed by a pullback and consolidation near key support levels.

Structure & Key Levels

Price formed a bullish engulfing pattern near 59.7–60.0, which marked the beginning of a recovery trend. A bearish reversal occurred around 14:30 ET at 61.1, where a sharp sell-off of 264.43 units triggered a retest of the 59.7 support. Key resistance levels emerged at 61.1–61.3, while 59.7–60.0 provided strong support. A doji formed at 09:45 ET, signaling indecision after a strong upward move.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period EMA on the 15-minute chart suggested a potential bullish continuation after the 07:45–08:15 ET rally. The 50-period MA crossed above the 20-period MA, supporting a short-term upward bias. On a daily chart, the 50/100/200 MA lines were not available for backtesting due to lack of prior daily data.

Momentum & Volatility

The RSI hit overbought levels above 61.3 and oversold levels below 59.7 during the 14:30 ET pullback. MACD showed a positive crossover early on, confirming upward momentum before the sell-off. Bollinger Bands exhibited a contraction during the 09:00–11:00 ET period, followed by a breakout above the upper band. Price hovered near the upper band during the 07:45–09:00 ET rally, indicating increased volatility.

Volume & Turnover Analysis

Volume surged sharply at 14:30 ET during the 264.43-unit sell-off, reinforcing the bearish reversal. Turnover spiked at the same time, aligning with price action. Notable divergences were observed between volume and price: at 09:45 ET, volume was relatively low despite a 0.3 RON move up, indicating cautious buying. A similar divergence occurred at 10:15 ET, where 12.65 RON turnover supported a 0.6 RON rally.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 59.7–61.6 move showed key retracement levels at 60.8 (38.2%), 60.6 (50%), and 60.2 (61.8%). Price tested the 60.8 level twice, confirming its significance. The 61.6 high marked a potential 161.8% extension level if the trend resumes.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described in the input involves entering long positions when RSI crosses above 30 and the 20 EMA crosses above the 50 EMA, with a stop-loss set at the 50-period low of the previous 15-minute candles. During today’s session, such conditions were met at 07:45–08:15 ET, confirming a potential entry point. However, the strategy faced a challenge at 14:30 ET when the 20 EMA crossed below the 50 EMA and RSI dropped below 50, signaling an exit. A backtest using this logic would need to include volume confirmation and divergence checks to avoid false signals during periods of high volatility.