Market Overview: MultiversX/Romanian Leu (EGLDRON) on 2025-11-12

Summary
• Price fell from 43.34 to 41.14 before rebounding to 42.67 in late morning.
• Volume surged in the first four hours and dropped off afterward.
• Key support levels identified at 41.35–41.43; resistance appears at 42.63–42.67.
• RSI dipped below 30 during the dip, suggesting oversold conditions at 03:45 ET.
• Bollinger Bands tightened between 04:00–06:00 ET, indicating low volatility before a breakout.

Price Action and Key Levels

MultiversX/Romanian Leu (EGLDRON) opened at 42.77 at 12:00 ET - 1 and closed at 42.67 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-12, with a daily high of 43.34 and a low of 41.14. The total volume for the 24-hour period was 608.28, while the notional turnover amounted to 25,997.15. The price experienced a bearish breakout below key support at 41.35 and found short-term support at 41.43 before rebounding into a more neutral range.

Support and Resistance

The price appears to have established a new support zone between 41.35 and 41.43 after multiple bounces and a 15-minute doji at 41.43. Resistance is forming between 42.63 and 42.67, where the price stalled during the morning rebound. A bullish engulfing pattern formed around 06:00–06:15 ET as the price moved from 42.32 to 42.57, indicating potential reversal momentum if this pattern holds.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended lower, reinforcing the bearish bias. The price remained below both averages for most of the session, but a cross above the 20-period MA at 06:00 ET signaled a potential short-term reversal. The MACD line remained in negative territory for the majority of the day, but a bullish crossover occurred at 06:00 ET, aligning with the bullish engulfing pattern. RSI confirmed oversold conditions during the morning low and rose into neutral territory by 09:00 ET, suggesting the market may consolidate.

Volatility and Fibonacci Levels

Bollinger Bands contracted between 04:00–06:00 ET, signaling low volatility before a breakout. The price then expanded the bands to the upside, indicating renewed buying pressure. Fibonacci retracement levels of the swing low at 41.14 and swing high at 42.67 show key levels at 38.2% (41.96) and 61.8% (42.40), which the price tested twice but failed to break through on the first attempt.

Volume and notional turnover spiked early in the session and remained muted for most of the day. This divergence suggests that the bearish move may not have strong follow-through. A volume-weighted rebound in late morning supported the short-term bullish bias.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described strategy relies on MACD bottom divergence to identify potential buy opportunities in EGLDRON, exiting positions after exactly three days. The MACD bottom divergence is detected using the standard two-low framework where price makes new lows while the MACD does not, suggesting exhaustion in the downtrend. This method aligns with the observed 06:00–06:15 ET bullish engulfing pattern and MACD crossover. A test from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-12 would help determine if such signals reliably lead to positive three-day returns, particularly in periods of low volatility like the one seen here. Further analysis with stop-loss and take-profit parameters could refine the strategy.