Market Overview for MultiversX/Romanian Leu (EGLDRON) – 2025-09-24

• EGLDRON opened at 56.9 and reached a high of 57.9 before closing at 56.8, down from 55.1 the previous day.
• A bearish trend emerged after a strong early sell-off, with a sharp drop from 57.9 to 56.6.
• Volatility increased during midday trading, with a 57.2 close after a 13:45 breakout above 57.0.
• RSI hit overbought levels briefly around 13:45, indicating short-term momentum but no strong reversal signals.
• Turnover spiked in the early morning and again after 13:45, coinciding with major price swings.

EGLDRON opened at 56.9 on 2025-09-23 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 57.9 on 2025-09-24 at 13:45. The 24-hour period saw the pair trade between 54.5 and 57.9, with a final close at 56.8. The total volume across the period was approximately 1,945.6 units, while the notional turnover (amount) totaled 1,469.6 Romanian Lei.

The price structure on the 15-minute chart suggests a bearish sentiment early in the session, with a sharp decline from 57.0 to 55.1 overnight. A consolidation period followed around 55.4–55.5 before the price broke out to the upside in the afternoon. Key support levels appeared at 55.1 and 55.4, and resistance at 56.6 and 57.2. A potential bearish engulfing pattern formed around 14:00–14:30, suggesting a continuation of downward pressure. A doji also formed at 05:45, indicating indecision.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart saw a cross below the 50-period line around 19:00, with the 20-period line also showing a bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average is trending downward, and the 200-period MA is acting as a key resistance, with no clear retest to it observed in this 24-hour window.

The RSI hit 75 at 13:45, briefly entering overbought territory before a sharp pullback. This suggests short-term bullish momentum, but not enough to confirm a reversal. MACD remained negative for most of the session, with a bearish crossover occurring around 15:00. Volatility, as measured by Bollinger Bands, expanded during the late-night and early morning hours, narrowing during consolidation before the 13:45 breakout.

Volume spiked in two distinct waves: one early in the session (19:00–23:30) and another in the afternoon (13:45–15:00). Both were accompanied by significant price swings. The first wave confirmed a bearish breakdown, while the second supported a bullish reversal attempt. No notable divergences were observed between price and volume or turnover.

The 15-minute Fibonacci retracement levels from the 55.1–57.9 swing placed 61.8% support at ~56.5 and 38.2% at ~56.8. The price closed near the 38.2% level, indicating a possible consolidation phase. Daily Fibonacci levels remain relevant in the context of broader trends but were not retested during this period.

The next 24 hours may see a test of the 56.8–57.0 range for potential resistance, with the 56.6 level likely acting as support. If the price breaks above 57.2, it could trigger a short-term bullish move, but bearish momentum remains intact. Investors should watch for volume confirmation on both up and down moves. A breakdown below 56.6 would likely extend the downward bias. As always, leverage and exposure should be managed carefully.

Backtest Hypothesis
Given the observed bearish engulfing pattern around 14:00 and the doji at 05:45, a potential short-term sell strategy could be backtested. A possible entry could be triggered by a bearish breakout below a key 15-minute support level (e.g., 56.6), with a stop placed above the recent high at 57.0. A take-profit could be set at the previous consolidation level of 55.4. This setup could be tested on historical data to evaluate its frequency, risk-reward ratio, and win rate across multiple cycles.