Market Overview for Mubarak/Tether (MUBARAKUSDT) – 2025-11-14

Summary
• Price action displayed a strong bearish bias with a 4.8% decline over 24 hours.
• Volatility expanded mid-day with a key breakdown below 0.0175.
• Volume surged during the selloff, confirming bearish momentum.

Mubarak/Tether (MUBARAKUSDT) opened at 0.01833 on 2025-11-13 and closed at 0.01712 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-14, with a high of 0.01812 and a low of 0.01670. Total volume reached 37.5 million USDT, and total turnover amounted to 6.45 million USDT over the 24-hour period.

The 24-hour candlestick pattern revealed a bearish structure, especially after a key breakdown below 0.0175, which acted as a pivotal support-turned-resistance. The price action suggests that sellers dominated the session, particularly during the overnight Asian and early European hours. On the 15-minute chart, bearish engulfing patterns and long lower shadows appeared in the latter half of the session, signaling capitulation among buyers.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a strong bearish bias, with the 20- and 50-period SMAs both sloping downward. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA is now above the 100-period SMA, which could indicate an emerging bearish trend. MACD remained in negative territory with a narrowing histogram, hinting at slowing bearish momentum. RSI approached oversold conditions at 32, but without a clear rebound, the pair appears to be in a consolidation phase after the sharp decline.

Bollinger Bands reflected an expansion in volatility during the selloff, particularly between 19:30 and 20:00 ET, when the pair fell below the lower band. Price has since remained within the bands, suggesting that the volatility may stabilize in the near term.

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the recent swing high at 0.01833 to the low at 0.01670 show the 0.618 level at approximately 0.01741, a zone where the pair has lingered in recent hours. This level could offer temporary support or resistance if the trend reverses.

The market appears to be in a consolidation phase after the sharp selloff, with key support at 0.01741 and resistance at 0.01765. While RSI is near oversold, a rebound is not guaranteed without stronger volume and momentum confirmation.

Backtest Hypothesis
The RSI-based “Oversold 1-Day Hold” strategy performed poorly during the test period. Despite hitting RSI levels below 30 multiple times, the price failed to rebound meaningfully within a single day. The strict one-day holding period likely limited the strategy’s ability to capture any potential bounces. Additionally, the drawdowns and low Sharpe ratio suggest that the strategy’s risk-reward profile is not favorable in the current volatile environment. These findings imply that while RSI may signal oversold conditions, standalone use on MUBARAKUSDT may not provide a consistent edge without additional filters or time-based adjustments.