Market Overview for MovieBloc/Tether (MBLUSDT) – 2025-10-04

• Price opened at $0.00198, surged to $0.002.004, then declined to close at $0.001956.
• Key resistance appears at $0.002.004 with potential support near $0.001951–$0.001956.
• Volatility increased during the 24-hour window, with notable volume spikes mid-day.
• MACD and RSI suggest mixed momentum, with overbought conditions briefly observed.
• Notional turnover was $111.72 million, indicating moderate but active trading interest.

MovieBloc/Tether (MBLUSDT) opened at $0.00198 at 12:00 ET–1 and reached a high of $0.002.004 by 19:30 ET. The pair then retraced, closing at $0.001956 as of 12:00 ET. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 644,542,763 Tether, with a notional turnover of $111.72 million, suggesting increased engagement during mid to late ET hours.

Structure and formations show a bearish bias after a strong midday high. A key resistance level appears at $0.002.004, where the price tested multiple times and eventually failed to hold. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged after 19:45 ET, signaling potential downward momentum. A doji formed at 21:45 ET near $0.001996, suggesting indecision. A strong support level is forming around $0.001951–$0.001956, where the price has consolidated in the final candlesticks.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart suggest a bearish crossover occurred after 20:00 ET. The 50-period MA crossed below the 100-period MA on the daily chart, reinforcing the bearish sentiment. The 200-period MA remains above the price, indicating potential long-term bearish pressure if the current trend continues.

MACD showed a bearish crossover and a negative histogram after 19:30 ET, aligning with the price decline. RSI reached overbought territory at 80+ around 19:30 ET before retreating sharply into neutral and undersold territory. This suggests the upward move may be exhausted, with potential for further downside. Bollinger Bands indicate a volatility contraction during the midday rally, followed by a breakout to the downside—indicating a potential continuation of the bearish trend.

Volume and turnover spiked between 16:00–19:45 ET, coinciding with the price reaching its high. A divergence between price and turnover appears in the later part of the day—turnover declines while the price continues lower, suggesting weakening conviction in the bearish move. However, the overall volume profile remains supportive of the downward trajectory, particularly as the final hour sees accumulation near support.

Fibonacci retracement levels based on the recent high ($0.002.004) and low ($0.001951) indicate a 61.8% retracement at $0.001976 and a 38.2% retracement at $0.001989. The current close at $0.001956 suggests the market is near the 61.8% level, a potential area of interest for short-term bounces or retests.

Backtest Hypothesis: A potential strategy involves entering short positions on a bearish engulfing candle confirmed by a close below the 20-period MA. Stop-loss is placed above the recent high of $0.002.004, and take-profit targets align with Fibonacci levels at $0.001976 and $0.001951. Given the current setup and RSI divergence, this strategy may have been profitable in the 24-hour period, particularly if executed between 19:30–20:15 ET.

MovieBloc/Tether may continue consolidating near support at $0.001951–$0.001956 in the next 24 hours. A retest of the $0.001976 level could offer a short-term bounce, but bearish momentum remains intact. Investors should remain cautious as divergence in turnover and RSI levels hint at potential countertrend bounces. A break above $0.002.004 could invalidate the bearish thesis, but a sustained move below $0.001951 may open the door for further declines.