Market Overview for Movement/Tether (MOVEUSDT) – 2025-11-04

Summary
• Price fell from a 24-hour high of $0.0595 to a low of $0.0519, ending at $0.0523.
• Volume surged during the drop, peaking at 3.9 million on a 15-minute chart.
• RSI and MACD signaled oversold conditions, while Bollinger Bands showed increased volatility.

Opening at $0.0584 on 2025-11-03 at 12:00 ET, Movement/Tether (MOVEUSDT) reached a high of $0.0595 and a low of $0.0519 before closing at $0.0523 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-04. Total volume traded in the 24-hour period was approximately 119,164,717.4, with a notional turnover of around $6,187,523.

Structure & Formations

MOVEUSDT displayed a bearish reversal pattern, particularly after a sharp selloff from $0.0595 to $0.0519. Key support levels emerged around $0.0530 and $0.0515, where buyers attempted to stabilize the price. Resistance appeared at $0.0540 and $0.0550, which could be retested in the coming days. A long lower shadow on the candle following the selloff suggests potential buying interest at lower levels, though the bearish bias remains intact.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended lower, reinforcing the bearish momentum. For daily analysis, the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages all show a descending trajectory, indicating a stronger bearish bias over the longer term. The price closed below all key moving averages, signaling a potential continuation of the downtrend.

MACD & RSI

The RSI dropped below 30 during the selloff, indicating oversold conditions. However, it failed to hold, suggesting further weakness could be in play. The MACD line remained negative and below the signal line throughout the session, reinforcing the bearish momentum. The histogram showed a gradual contraction, indicating a possible slowdown in the rate of decline, though not a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the sharp selloff, with the price dropping below the lower band. This expansion indicated heightened volatility. As the price approached the lower band, it showed signs of consolidation, suggesting a potential bounce or continuation of the downtrend. The width of the bands also hinted at increased risk for large price swings in either direction in the next 24 hours.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the selloff, especially in the 15-minute candles between 20:15 ET and 21:00 ET, with one candle showing a volume of nearly 3.9 million. This divergence between price and volume during the decline suggests strong selling pressure. Turnover also surged during the selloff, but volume waned as the price approached $0.0520, indicating a possible exhaustion of short-term sellers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent swing high ($0.0595) and low ($0.0519), the 38.2% retracement level is at $0.0554, and the 61.8% level is at $0.0572. The price currently sits at $0.0523, well below the 38.2% level, suggesting further downward movement is more likely than a retest of higher retracement levels in the near term. These levels may become relevant if a strong reversal develops.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bearish move and overbought conditions at the top of the range, a backtest based on RSI and Fibonacci retracements could be a useful tool in understanding potential trade setups. The RSI reaching oversold levels and the price touching the 61.8% retracement level at $0.0572 suggest a possible entry point for a short-term long trade. For such a strategy to work, confirming the RSI crossing back above 30 and a retest of the 61.8% level with strong volume would be necessary to validate the setup.

Backtest Strategy Clarification

To run this backtest, additional details are required to tailor the strategy to your preferences:
1. Which asset would you like to test?
2. What RSI look-back period and overbought threshold would you like to use?
3. At what Fibonacci retracement level should the position be closed — a 61.8% retracement of the initial move or another definition?
4. Are there any risk controls you would like to include, such as stop-loss levels or maximum holding periods?

With this information, I can execute the backtest from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-04 and provide results that align with your trading style and risk appetite.