Market Overview for Movement/Tether (MOVEUSDT) on 2025-10-11

• Price dropped 6.6% in 24 hours, with a sharp selloff beginning around 19:30 ET.
• A massive bearish engulfing pattern formed near $0.1008, indicating strong bear momentum.
• RSI hit oversold territory after a 13-hour decline, hinting at potential short-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands contracted sharply near $0.075, suggesting a period of consolidation.
• Volume spiked during the selloff, confirming bearish pressure, while volume waned during rebound attempts.

Movement/Tether (MOVEUSDT) opened at $0.104 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.1059, and a low of $0.0301, closing at $0.0831 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-11. Total volume was 169.4 million, and turnover was approximately $14.0 million, reflecting significant bearish momentum.

Structure & Formations on the 15-minute chart revealed a key support at $0.0831 and a resistance near $0.0845. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at $0.1008, indicating a potential reversal in favor of sellers. A bullish harami appeared at $0.0835, suggesting a possible short-term counter-trend. A large bearish inside bar at $0.0831 could signal caution for buyers.

Moving Averages showed the price trading below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, confirming a bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA acted as a strong resistance, and the 200-period MA held as a long-term floor at $0.0726.

MACD turned negative sharply after 19:30 ET, confirming the bearish shift. RSI hit oversold territory at 19.4 during the selloff, suggesting a potential bounce in the short term. However, the divergence in RSI during the post-oversold rebound failed to confirm strong bullish momentum, hinting at possible further consolidation.

Bollinger Bands tightened at $0.075 before expanding, indicating a period of low volatility followed by increased trading action. Price has been trading near the upper band during rebound phases and near the lower band during the selloff, showing that the move is still within a defined range.

Volume surged during the decline, especially between 19:30 and 21:15 ET, confirming bearish control. Notional turnover aligned with price movement, showing no divergence. During the rebound phases, volume waned, suggesting limited buying interest and possible continuation of the bearish trend.

Fibonacci retracement levels on the 15-minute chart showed key levels at 38.2% at $0.0865 and 61.8% at $0.0831. Price found support at the 61.8% level during the morning session but failed to hold the 38.2% level during the subsequent rally. Daily Fibonacci levels suggested that a breakdown below $0.0726 could lead to further tests of the 200-period MA and below.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy described involves entering short positions on bearish engulfing patterns formed at key Fibonacci retracement levels, with a stop-loss placed above the high of the pattern and a target at the 61.8% level. Given today’s formation at $0.1008 and subsequent price action, this strategy would have been triggered and could offer a valid short-term bearish trade. However, the recent rebound and lack of follow-through in volume suggest that the strategy may need additional confirmation before execution in live trading.