Market Overview for Movement/Tether (MOVEUSDT) – 2025-10-04

• Price declined from $0.1189 to $0.1117 amid mixed candlestick action.
• Volatility expanded after 21:00 ET, with a high of $0.1190 and a low of $0.1114.
• RSI signaled oversold conditions toward the close, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands showed contraction early, then widened as momentum picked up.
• Turnover surged near $11.5 million, with a notable divergence in late-hour volume.

Movement/Tether (MOVEUSDT) opened at $0.1159 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET, peaked at $0.1190, and closed at $0.1132 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04. The pair traded between $0.1114 and $0.1190 over the 24-hour period. Total volume reached approximately 28.8 million, while notional turnover hit $11.5 million, showing heightened trader participation, especially during late-night hours.

Structure & Formations

Price experienced a sharp bearish reversal in the early morning (ET), forming a bearish engulfing pattern below $0.1160 and a key support level at $0.1145. A significant bearish breakdown occurred from $0.1160 to $0.1132. Meanwhile, a doji formed at $0.1149, signaling indecision near the $0.1145–$0.1150 pivot zone. These patterns suggest sellers took control after a period of consolidation.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below the 20- and 50-period SMAs, indicating bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA is at $0.1155, with price now below the 100- and 200-period SMAs, suggesting a broader bearish bias. The 100-period SMA is at $0.1167, while the 200-period SMA is near $0.1175.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative in the last 30 minutes of the 24-hour window, with a bearish crossover between the signal and MACD lines, reinforcing bearish momentum. RSI fell into oversold territory near $0.1117, hovering just below 30, which could suggest a short-term bounce but not a reversal. Divergence was observed between price and RSI during the last 30 candles, signaling potential indecision.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a contraction in the early morning, followed by a sharp expansion after 21:00 ET. Price traded below the 20-period lower band for much of the session, indicating oversold conditions. The upper band reached $0.1190 at peak, and the lower band bottomed at $0.1114, marking the range of volatility.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 845,866 at $0.1150 during the breakdown phase, confirming bearish sentiment. Turnover followed suit, peaking at $985,000 during the same period. Notably, late-hour volume declined as price approached $0.1117, raising questions about conviction in the bearish move and potential for a short-term bounce.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent swing high of $0.1190 and low of $0.1114, key levels include 38.2% at $0.1152 and 61.8% at $0.1137. Price closed near the 61.8% level, suggesting potential for a retest of the 38.2% level in the near term. Daily-level retracements are also aligned with the 50-period SMA, reinforcing the importance of $0.1152 as a near-term target.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering long positions on a bullish reversal pattern (e.g., a hammer or morning star) when price nears the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and RSI drops below 30. A stop-loss could be placed below the most recent bearish engulfing pattern, and the first profit target aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci level. This approach could be tested with historical data to assess its effectiveness in capturing short-term countertrend bounces in low-volatility environments.