Market Overview for Movement/Tether (MOVEUSDT) – 2025-09-26

• Movement/Tether (MOVEUSDT) traded between $0.1074 and $0.1126, closing slightly lower at $0.1091 after an early morning rally.
• A 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern formed near the day’s high, suggesting potential near-term distribution.
• Volatility expanded during the drop from $0.1126 to $0.1088, with turnover surging past $650,000 in a single candle.
• RSI remains in neutral territory, though overbought conditions briefly emerged during the 03:00–04:30 ET bounce.
• Volume spiked on the downward move but remained subdued on the recovery, hinting at weak bullish conviction.

Movement/Tether (MOVEUSDT) opened at $0.1081 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.1091 on 2025-09-26 at the same time. The pair reached a high of $0.1126 and a low of $0.1074 over the 24-hour window. Total volume amounted to 11,266,429.4 and notional turnover exceeded $1,215,000, with pronounced surges during key price swings.

Structure & Formations

MOVEUSDT formed a bearish engulfing pattern on the 15-minute chart near $0.1126 at 17:15 ET, followed by a sharp decline to $0.1088. A morning bounce saw a small bullish harami around $0.1102–0.1105, indicating potential consolidation. Key support levels emerged at $0.1090–0.1091 and $0.1084–0.1085, with resistance clustering at $0.1105–0.1107 and $0.1111–0.1112. A doji formed around $0.1094 at 22:45 ET, signaling indecision after the downward thrust.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA crossed above the 50SMA briefly at $0.1092–0.1094 before diverging as price dipped below. Daily 50/100/200SMA lines showed a bearish alignment, with price currently under all three. A potential retest of the 50DMA at $0.1096 could trigger a short-term bounce or further sell-off, depending on volume confirmation.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed zero from below at 01:15–01:30 ET during the rally and remained positive through 06:00 ET before turning negative again. The histogram showed a narrowing of bullish momentum during the early morning rise and bearish divergence in the 06:00–09:00 window. RSI fluctuated between 45 and 65, indicating moderate momentum with no strong overbought or oversold readings. A potential break below 40 could signal further downside, but no immediate extremes have emerged.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded from $0.1126 to $0.1088, with price closing near the lower band at $0.1091. The bands widened significantly during the drop, signaling increased uncertainty. Price remained within the bands throughout the 24-hour period, suggesting no breakout attempt. A retest of the upper band at $0.1105–0.1107 could provide insight into short-term direction.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the drop from $0.1126 to $0.1088, peaking at $0.1091 with a candle of $455,823 in volume and $499,710 in turnover. A smaller volume followed on the morning bounce, indicating weaker follow-through. Price and turnover diverged during this phase, with higher price action but lower volume, suggesting weak bullish conviction. A new rally with increasing volume would be needed to confirm a reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 15-minute swing from $0.1126 to $0.1088, key retracement levels of 38.2% ($0.1107) and 61.8% ($0.1096) were tested but rejected. On the daily chart, a retracement from the recent swing high to the 2025-09-25 low at $0.1088 suggests a possible bounce near 38.2% at $0.1102. A failure to break above 61.8% could reaffirm the bearish trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering short positions on a bearish engulfing pattern confirmation, followed by a stop-loss above the pattern’s high. A trailing stop could be used as price tests Fibonacci levels at 38.2% and 61.8%. If the 50SMA turns downward and RSI fails to move above 50, the position is closed at the next support level. This approach aims to capitalize on short-term bearish momentum confirmed by volume and structure, aligning with the observed technical behavior over the past 24 hours.