Market Overview for Morpho/Tether (MORPHOUSDT) – 2025-10-29

• MORPHOUSDT opened at 1.988, reached a high of 2.004, and closed at 1.999 with a low of 1.962.
• A bearish correction followed a bullish rebound, forming key support near 1.960 and resistance at 2.000.
• Volume spiked during the decline to 1.962 but remained lower during the rally, suggesting uneven conviction.
• RSI entered oversold territory (1.962–1.975), followed by a measured rebound but failed to break above 50.
• The 24-hour MACD flipped positive but remains below the signal line, indicating mixed momentum.

The Morpho/Tether (MORPHOUSDT) pair opened at 1.988 on 2025-10-29 and closed at 1.999 by 12:00 ET. The 24-hour candle reached a high of 2.004 and a low of 1.962, showing a bearish reversal pattern after a sharp correction. Total volume across the 24 hours was approximately 1,148,755.87, while notional turnover amounted to roughly 2,287,278.94 in USD terms.

Structure on the 15-minute chart shows a bearish breakdown below 1.980, followed by a modest recovery to close just below 2.000. A Morning Star pattern failed to complete near 1.975–1.980, with volume diverging from price strength. A Morning Star-incomplete pattern appears around 1.962–1.967, indicating a possible reversal attempt. Key support levels are now at 1.960, 1.940, and 1.920. Resistance remains at 2.000, 2.010, and 2.020.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed into a bearish death cross around 19:00 ET, followed by a bullish crossover near 06:00 ET as the pair recovered. On the daily chart, the 50-period line crossed below the 200-period line, reinforcing a bearish trend. The 100-period MA is currently providing resistance at 1.995.

MACD turned positive during the recovery phase, indicating short-term bullish momentum, but has yet to cross above the signal line for a confirmed bullish signal. RSI reached an oversold level during the decline to 1.962 but did not break above 50 after the rebound, suggesting limited conviction in the upward move.

Bollinger Bands show a recent expansion as volatility increased during the 1.962–2.004 swing. Price closed near the upper band at 2.004 but has since pulled back toward the middle band. A contraction is forming around 1.980–1.995, which may precede another directional move. The 1.980–1.995 range is a key area to watch for potential breakouts or reversals.

Fibonacci retracement levels for the 1.962–2.004 move show 38.2% at 1.984 and 61.8% at 1.992. Price has bounced off these levels multiple times, suggesting potential support/resistance zones for the near term. A break below 1.984 could retest 1.975, while a sustained close above 1.992 would aim for 2.000.

The pair may consolidate between 1.975 and 1.995 in the next 24 hours, with a breakout expected to provide direction. A break below 1.975 could signal a deeper correction, while a close above 2.000 would validate the continuation of the bullish rebound. Investors should monitor volume divergence and RSI behavior for clues on sustainability.

Backtest Hypothesis

An attempted backtest of the Morning Star pattern for HOLD.P from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-29 returned no valid signals, likely due to the pattern's strict criteria or lack of occurrences. This highlights the need for flexibility in pattern-based strategies, particularly in volatile crypto markets like MORPHOUSDT. Expanding the criteria to include near-Morning Star or other bullish reversal patterns (e.g., bullish engulfing, hammer) may yield more actionable signals. Additionally, incorporating momentum indicators like RSI or MACD could help filter false signals and improve the signal-to-noise ratio. Adjusting the holding period or using profit targets and stop-loss levels may also enhance the strategy’s robustness.