Market Overview for Moonriver/Tether (MOVRUSDT) - 2025-11-09 12:00 ET

• MOVR/USDT traded with bearish bias after a sharp decline from $3.88 to $3.71, reversing later into a modest rally.
• Strongest volatility seen between 02:45–04:30 ET, with price oscillating over 120 bps on increased volume.
• 61.8% Fibonacci level at $3.75 appears to act as a short-term support, with potential for further consolidation.
• RSI dipped into oversold territory briefly but failed to trigger a strong bounce, suggesting caution ahead.
• Volume remains elevated during key declines, indicating distribution pressures from larger participants.

Moonriver/Tether (MOVRUSDT) opened at $3.829 on 2025-11-08 12:00 ET, surged to $3.902, dropped to a 24-hour low of $3.689, and closed at $3.796 on 2025-11-09 12:00 ET. The total traded volume across 24 hours was 305,502.32 MOVR, with a notional turnover of approximately $1,153,178. The price action reflects a volatile 24-hour session marked by sharp corrections and mixed momentum.

Structure & Formations

MOVRUSDT displayed a bearish structure from early morning through midday ET, with multiple large-bodied bear candles and a wide-ranging session that extended to $3.689. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed at $3.88–$3.78 around 03:00–04:00 ET, reinforcing a short-term breakdown. However, a bullish reversal pattern emerged post-05:00 ET as price found support near the 61.8% Fibonacci level. A doji at $3.796 near the session close hints at indecision among market participants.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period EMAs both moved downward, confirming the short-term bearish bias. The 50-period MA crossed below the 20-period MA, forming a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period MA cluster shows a slight bearish tilt, with the 200-period MA acting as a key long-term reference point for trend direction.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line remained below the signal line for most of the session, with bearish histogram bars reflecting strong selling momentum in the early hours. RSI dipped into oversold territory near 27 during the 02:45–03:30 ET window but failed to rally aggressively, suggesting weak buyer participation. A weak rally post-05:00 ET pushed RSI back above 50, indicating a potential shift to consolidation.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly from 02:30–05:00 ET, with price dropping below the lower band at $3.711 and then surging back toward the midline. This expansion suggests a high-stress environment with mixed buyer-seller sentiment. The current close at $3.796 is sitting near the midline of the bands, indicating a possible balance point in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

The most active trading occurred during the sharp correction from $3.88 to $3.71, with a 21,266.121 MOVR volume candle at $3.711. This high-volume bear candle suggests distribution by larger players. A divergence between volume and price is evident post-05:00 ET, where volume dropped despite a price rebound. This could signal a potential short-term topping pattern.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels from the $3.902 high to the $3.689 low include 23.6% at $3.829, 38.2% at $3.766, and 61.8% at $3.750. Price found temporary support at the 61.8% level, with a modest recovery afterward. The 50% retracement at $3.796 coincided with the session close, suggesting a possible pivot point for the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

When developing a backtest strategy using technical indicators such as RSI and MACD, it is crucial to ensure the data source recognizes the asset symbol. If the RSI for “HOLD.P – Harbor Alpha Layering ETF” could not be retrieved, it is likely due to a ticker symbol mismatch or lack of historical data. Adjusting the symbol to a confirmed tradeable ticker such as “HOLD” or a comparable ETF could resolve the issue and allow for a more accurate backtest. Alternatively, extending the data window or simplifying the strategy parameters could also help in accommodating the available data.