Market Overview for Moonriver/Tether (MOVRUSDT) on 2025-10-04

• MOVRUSDT declined from 5.839 to 5.671, with a bearish reversal attempt near 5.78.
• Volatility surged during the 15-minute session on 10/03, peaking at 5.874 before a sharp retrace.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions in the mid-session but fell into oversold near the close.
• Bollinger Bands showed a contraction during the overnight hours before a breakout.
• Key support appears near 5.668–5.671, while resistance remains at 5.78–5.80.

The 24-hour session for Moonriver/Tether (MOVRUSDT) began at 5.689 at 12:00 ET − 1 and ended at 5.673 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 5.839 and a low of 5.657. Total traded volume was 110,166.46 units, with notional turnover of $605,769.21.

The price action exhibited a strong bearish reversal in the afternoon of 10/03, with a sharp drop from 5.839 to 5.657 following a consolidation at 5.78–5.80. A bullish engulfing pattern formed at 5.78–5.80, but it failed to sustain momentum. The session ended on a bearish note, with a doji-like formation near 5.673, suggesting uncertainty among traders.

Structure & Formations

Key resistance levels were observed at 5.78–5.80 and 5.839, with the former showing a failed bullish engulfing pattern. Support emerged near 5.668–5.671, coinciding with the close of the session and the low at 5.657. A potential double-bottom structure may form if buyers defend this level.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price crossed below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages during the late session, confirming a bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average was crossed down, reinforcing the bearish momentum. The 100- and 200-period moving averages also showed bearish alignment, with price remaining below both.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a bearish crossover during the afternoon of 10/03, with the histogram shrinking as the price consolidated. RSI peaked at overbought conditions (72) and dropped to oversold (30) by the close. The divergence between price and RSI suggests weakening momentum on the downside, with potential for a bounce from the oversold level.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility showed a marked contraction during the overnight hours, with the bands narrowing significantly. A breakout occurred after 02:00 ET, with price moving above the upper band before retreating. The bands are currently wide, indicating ongoing uncertainty in the market.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply in the afternoon of 10/03, reaching 17,005.109 units during the 20:00 ET candle, coinciding with a high of 5.839. However, notional turnover did not confirm this strength, showing a lower-than-expected increase. A divergence between volume and price was observed during the final hours, suggesting a lack of conviction among sellers.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the key Fibonacci levels were 5.78 (61.8%), 5.75 (50%), and 5.71 (38.2%). The price found support at 5.668–5.671, which corresponds to the 0% level from the recent low. On the daily chart, retracements suggest a potential target range of 5.65–5.67 for further bearish movement if the trend continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the technical indicators, a potential backtest strategy could involve a short position on MOVRUSDT when price breaks below 5.671 (confirmed by a close below this level) and RSI is in oversold territory. The initial stop loss could be placed above the 5.75 level, with a target of 5.63 (Fibonacci 78.6% of the recent move). This strategy is based on the assumption that the bearish momentum from the recent breakdown is strong enough to carry the price into oversold levels, with a clear risk-reward ratio and well-defined entry/exit points.