• Price of Moonbeam/Bitcoin (GLMRBTC) dropped sharply during the 24-hour period, reaching a low of $0.000000021 before rebounding.
• Momentum shifted as RSI and MACD showed bearish divergence followed by a stabilizing signal.
• Volatility spiked with a large-volume candle breaking lower before stabilizing mid-range.
• Turnover increased during the drop, suggesting significant selling pressure.
• Price is now consolidating near a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the recent swing high.
Opening Snapshot
Moonbeam/Bitcoin (GLMRBTC) opened at $0.000000460 at 12:00 ET on October 10, hit a high of $0.000000460, a low of $0.000000021, and closed at $0.000000360 at 12:00 ET on October 11. Total 24-hour volume was 1,123,623.2 units, and turnover amounted to $404.54 (notional).
Structure & Formations
The 24-hour period displayed a sharp bearish breakdown, with price forming a large-volume bearish candle (19:30–20:00 ET) that gapped lower from $0.000000460 to $0.000000021. After a brief rebound, the price stabilized near $0.00000035–$0.00000036, forming a potential support cluster. A bearish engulfing pattern and a sharp decline into a new 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level suggest a critical support zone is under test.
Moving Averages and Momentum
On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are bearish and bearishly divergent. The 200-period daily MA shows a stronger bearish bias, aligning with the broader bearish momentum. MACD turned negative and the RSI dropped into oversold territory, hinting at possible stabilization or a counter-trend bounce, but not a reversal.
Volatility and Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the sharp drop, indicating a volatility spike. Price is now trading near the lower band, suggesting that the oversold condition could lead to a bounce. However, the large volume and depth of the selloff may extend the consolidation phase before a reversal becomes likely.
Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy in question involves a short-term mean reversion model, which buys upon a RSI oversold crossover and sells upon a RSI overbought or a break of the 20-period moving average. Given the recent sharp drop and RSI hitting oversold levels, a potential mean reversion trigger is in place. However, the large bearish gap and significant volume suggest a higher probability of continuation of the bear trend than a reversal.
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