Market Overview for Momentum/USDC on 2025-11-11

• Momentum/USDC opened at $0.5233 and closed near $0.5018 after a volatile 24-hour session.
• Key resistance at $0.5386 was breached but met with selling pressure.
• Volume surged at $0.5593 but faded as price dropped into a consolidation phase.
• RSI showed overbought conditions early before dropping into oversold territory.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the session high, signaling potential reversal risk.

Momentum/USDC (MMTUSDC) opened at $0.5233 on 2025-11-10 12:00 ET and closed at $0.5018 by 12:00 ET the next day. The pair reached a high of $0.5666 and hit a low of $0.497. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 10,231,387.1, with a notional turnover of $5,336,782. The session saw heightened volatility, particularly in the early hours of the morning, with a sharp rise in price and volume.

The candlestick formation revealed a strong bearish reversal pattern near the session high, where a bearish engulfing pattern formed on 2025-11-11 04:30 ET. This pattern, along with a doji-star at $0.5593, indicates potential exhaustion of bullish momentum. Additionally, price found a key support level around $0.5067–$0.5168, which has been retested multiple times with varying levels of success.

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed several times, indicating a lack of strong directional bias. The 50-period MA acted as a dynamic resistance in the early hours before flipping to a support role. The RSI crossed into overbought territory at $0.5593 and quickly moved into oversold territory after the price drop, suggesting a potential pullback may be imminent. MACD lines showed a bearish crossover in the early morning, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Bollinger Bands were wide in the pre-dawn hours due to high volatility, with price hitting the upper band at $0.5666. After the sharp drop, the bands began to contract, signaling a potential period of consolidation. Price remained within the bands for most of the session, with the lower band acting as a temporary floor around $0.5098. Fibonacci retracement levels showed that the $0.5067–$0.5168 range aligned with 38.2–61.8% retracements of the prior bullish move.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtest strategy focuses on identifying a specific candlestick pattern: a day must include both a bearish engulfing and a doji-star candle to trigger an entry signal. This pattern is often seen as a potential reversal signal in bearish momentum. For the exit strategy, the pivot-low method is the most straightforward and effective approach. By exiting when price first closes below the most recent 10-day swing low, the strategy balances responsiveness with reliability. A 50-day swing low could also be used to capture longer-term support levels, but the 10-day variant is more practical for short-term traders. To add robustness, a trailing stop based on 1 ATR could also be implemented after the first close below the swing low. This ensures protection against false breakouts while allowing the trade room to breathe in volatile conditions. Given the sharp drop in MMTUSDC, a well-defined exit strategy is critical for risk management.