Market Overview for MOBOX/Tether (MBOXUSDT) on 2025-09-25

• MOBOX/Tether fell 14.9% over 24 hours, breaching key support levels.
• Strong bearish momentum indicated by RSI below 30 and MACD bear cross.
• Volatility expanded post-20:00 ET with large-volume breakdowns below 0.0590.
• Bollinger Bands show price near lower band, suggesting potential for rebound.
• Downtrend remains intact with volume surging during critical breakdowns.

24-Hour Summary

MOBOX/Tether (MBOXUSDT) opened at 0.0603 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.0605, a low of 0.0537, and closed at 0.0539 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-25. Total traded volume was approximately 9,542,559.9 MBOX, with a notional turnover of $515,030.81.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the past 24 hours reveals a clear bearish trend, with MOBOX/Tether falling below key support levels at 0.0590 and 0.0585. A large-volume breakdown candle at 2025-09-24 231500 (0.0592 → 0.0582) marked a key pivot point. Several long lower shadows and bearish engulfing patterns suggest continued pressure. A bearish hammer pattern at 0.0539 could hint at possible near-term stabilization, though not a reversal.

Moving Averages

Short-term (20/50-period) moving averages on the 15-minute chart confirm the downtrend, with the 50SMA below the 20SMA. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-day SMAs are aligned bearishly, with the 100 and 200-day lines currently acting as overhead resistance. Price remains well below all these averages, reinforcing the bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute RSI has been in oversold territory (under 30) for most of the day, suggesting exhausted short-term sellers. However, the MACD has maintained a bearish cross and negative divergence, indicating that bear momentum remains intact. The MACD histogram is expanding lower, especially after the breakdown below 0.0590, pointing to potential for further downside.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply after 20:00 ET, coinciding with the breakdown of the 0.0590 level. Price has since traded near the lower Bollinger Band on the 15-minute chart, suggesting a possible rebound or consolidation phase. The width of the bands has increased significantly from a morning contraction, indicating rising uncertainty and risk of further downside.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during key breakdowns, particularly at 231500 (0.0592 → 0.0582), where the $33,164 notional turnover confirmed bearish conviction. Later, a massive turnover of $34,972 at 050000 (0.0551 → 0.0548) indicated continued selling pressure. There is no sign of buying volume entering the market to counterbalance the selling.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the most recent 15-minute swing (0.0592 → 0.0582), price is currently near the 61.8% level at 0.0586, suggesting a possible consolidation phase or further bearish move. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the larger swing (e.g., from 0.0605 → 0.0537) is at 0.0564, which may offer a temporary floor if the trend pauses.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtest strategy uses a dual indicator approach, combining MACD crossovers with RSI divergence. A long entry is triggered when the MACD line crosses above the signal line and RSI confirms by rising above 50, while a short entry is initiated when the MACD line crosses below the signal line and RSI falls below 50. Divergence between RSI and price (e.g., lower highs in price with higher lows in RSI) is used to refine entries. Given the current bearish momentum, this strategy would have entered a short position at 0.0592–0.0582, aligning well with the breakdown observed. A stop-loss above the 0.0595 level and a take-profit at 0.0575 could be used for short-term bearish bias.